Bilje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana: match statistics

ND Slovan Ljubljana sit 3rd, while Bilje are only 11th, and the visitors have won 3 of their 4 league matches so far. Both teams have scored 1.5 goals per match in their respective home and away settings, but Slovan create slightly more chances: they average 6.5 shots and 3.5 on target, compared with Bilje’s 6 and 3. The hosts hold an advantage in the quality of chances created, with average xG of 1.14 versus their opponents’ 1.07; however, their defence allows opponents to generate xG of 1.70. Both teams concede as many as 2.5 goals per match on average and have failed to keep a clean sheet, increasing the likelihood of an open game. Nevertheless, Slovan’s higher league position and run of 3 wins in their last 5 matches provide a slight edge to the visitors.

Bilje have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, while both teams have scored in each of their last five fixtures; Slovan Ljubljana stand at 50% and 60%, respectively. The hosts average 2.5 goals per match but have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 1.0 goal, with a high xG against them of 2.25. The visitors score an average of 1.5 goals, while their recent average of 1.6 goals and xG of 1.21 suggest they should create chances away from home as well. Slovan’s defence also provides little support for a Bilje No Goal scenario, as the team have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 2.5 goals per match. Although the league-wide BTTS rate is only 42%, the current form of both sides clearly strengthens the Goal/Goal scenario.

Both teams have recorded over 1.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far this season, with the Over 2.5 goals line also landing in every one of those games. Bilje have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded in their last five appearances, while Slovan Ljubljana have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The xG profile also points to an open game: the hosts have created chances worth 1.45 xG in their last five matches, while the visitors have allowed opponents 1.87 xG. Over 1.5 goals is the safest option, as neither team has kept a clean sheet yet and their current results are clearly above the league average of 2.94 goals per match.

Bilje have a clearly stronger first-half profile: they were leading at the break in 2 of 2 matches, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding just 0.5. ND Slovan Ljubljana were not leading at half-time in either of their 2 matches and conceded an average of 1.5 goals before the break, strongly supporting the hosts’ early advantage. Bilje have won all of their matches at home so far, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding 1.0, while the visitors concede an average of 2.5 goals away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of games, and their pre-half-time goal difference stands at +5 compared with +2 for their opponents. The risk to this pick is Bilje’s weaker second-half performance, during which they conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last five appearances; however, their first-half advantage and the visitors’ defensive weakness still make Bilje leading at half-time and winning at full-time the most likely HT/FT outcome.