Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: match statistics

Wolverhampton Wanderers sit higher in the table, in 5th place compared with Birmingham in 8th, and have collected 10 points from their last five matches thanks to 3 wins, while the hosts have managed only 6 points. The visitors have been impressive in front of goal: they have scored 13 goals in their last five games and average 2.5 goals per away match, with an xG of 1.64. Birmingham are unbeaten at home, but both of their matches so far have ended in draws, while their average xG of 1.34 is lower than their opponents’ figure. Wolves also create more chances, averaging 16.5 shots and 4 on target away from home, compared with Birmingham’s 12 shots and 3 on target at home. Neither defence is particularly solid — the hosts concede an average of 1.5 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.5 away — so Birmingham should have a chance to score, but the greater attacking potential points to the visitors.

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet or failed to score in a match yet. Birmingham average 3.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Wolverhampton average 2.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per match. The current form also strongly supports BTTS - Yes: in their last five matches, BTTS occurred in 80% of cases for each team, with Birmingham conceding an average of 2.0 goals and Wolves 1.6. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG figures of 1.88 for the hosts and 1.64 for the visitors, while Wolverhampton have scored as many as 13 goals in their last five matches. Even Birmingham’s weaker recent average of 1.2 goals and an xG of 1.15 is supported by the visitors’ defence, which concedes 1.6 goals per match, making it more likely that both teams will score.

The profile of both teams clearly favors goals: in the current competition, the average number of goals in Birmingham matches is 4.5, compared with 5.0 for Wolverhampton. Each team has surpassed the 1.5-goal and 2.5-goal lines in 100% of matches so far, while both have regularly scored and conceded at least one goal. In their last five matches, Wolverhampton averaged 2.6 goals scored, while Birmingham conceded 2.0, significantly increasing the visitors’ attacking potential. The hosts have averaged 1.15 xG over their last five appearances, while their opponents allow 1.25 xG, making a goal for Birmingham a realistic scenario as well. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest statistical backing, as the expected total of 3.20 goals provides a substantial margin even if the match is less open than the teams’ previous fixtures.

Wolverhampton are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win for Birmingham, while their average goals scored stand at 2.6 and 1.2 respectively. The visitors led at the break in 60% of their recent matches and averaged 1.4 goals scored before half-time, whereas the hosts took the lead in only 20% of cases, scoring 0.6 goals in this phase. Birmingham conceded an average of 1.0 goals before half-time, compared with 0.8 for Wolves, further strengthening the scenario of an away advantage in the first half. After the interval, Wolves still have the more favourable record, averaging 1.2 goals scored and recording a positive goal difference of +2 in their last five appearances, compared with Birmingham’s 0.6 goals. The most likely outcome is therefore a Wolverhampton lead at half-time followed by a win at full-time: HT/FT 2/2.