Blacks Power vs Vipers: match statistics

Blacks Power sit 4th and have won 3 of their 4 league matches so far, while Vipers are 11th. The hosts have won both of their home games without conceding, averaging 13.5 shots there, including 7 on target. Their average home xG is 1.82, but opponents’ xG of 1.65 suggests that their clean sheets so far do not mean their goal has been free from danger. Vipers have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, but scored 5 goals and conceded 4 during that run, so they could put up a fight. Home advantage and Blacks Power’s stronger results point to a home win, although the limited data on Vipers’ away performances adds uncertainty to the prediction.

BTTS - No is more likely, meaning at least one team fails to score: in the league, both teams score in 38% of matches, with an average of 2.03 goals per game. In their recent matches, both teams scored in 50% of Blacks Power’s games and 40% of Vipers’ games, while they conceded an average of 0.75 and 0.8 goals per match, respectively. Their attacking potential nevertheless calls for caution: their average xG in this run is 1.54 and 1.51, respectively, so a scenario in which both teams score remains plausible. Vipers’ zero average in away-game statistics is not sufficient evidence that the visitors will fail to score, so the preference for BTTS - No is only moderate.

In their most recent available matches, Blacks Power averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Vipers averaged 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, pointing to a moderate goal tally. Although both teams’ average xG figures are higher, at 1.54 and 1.51 respectively, their actual finishing has fallen short of the quality of chances created. The league averages 2.03 goals per match, and only 38% of matches go Over 2.5 goals. Moreover, none of the Blacks Power home matches included in the analysis went Over 3.5 goals, so with a forecast of 2.25 goals, the strongest pick is Under 3.5. Vipers’ zero averages in away matches do not provide a reliable basis for a forecast, so greater weight is given to their overall results.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Blacks Power win: in their most recent available matches, the hosts were level at the break in 67% of cases, compared with 60% for Vipers. After the break, Blacks Power averaged 1.0 goals against Vipers’ 0.4, pointing to the match being decided in the second half. The hosts have recently averaged 2.25 points per match, compared with 1.0 for the visitors, and won 75% and 20% of their matches, respectively. However, the X/1 pick is not certain, as Blacks Power were not level at half-time in either of their two available home matches, while Vipers’ zero away statistics are not reliable evidence of their weakness.