Bohemians vs Derry City: match statistics

Bohemians have a clear advantage in quality of chances at home: average xG 1.65 vs 1.12 for Derry City, on average 5.67 shots on target and 14.5 shots per game with 62% possession compared to 3 shots on target, 9.5 shots and 43% possession for the visitors. This translates into greater home productivity — Bohemians score 1.17 goals per home game with a 17% share of matches without a goal, while Derry City scores 0.83 goals away and fail to score in 50% of away matches. Nevertheless, form over the last 5 matches favors Derry City: the visitors have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss and average 1.6 points per game, whereas Bohemians have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses with 0.4 points per game and have conceded 8 goals. Defensively both sides officially concede about 1 goal per game (Bohemians 1.0 at home, Derry 1.0 away), but xG against exposes the visitors’ weakness — 1.76 for Derry vs 1.03 for Bohemians, suggesting more high-quality chances against the visitors. Considering home advantage and the hosts’ superior attacking metrics, but also their poor form, I give a slight edge to the home side: 45% probability for a Bohemians win, 30% for a draw and 25% for a Derry City win.

A strong BTTS signal comes from season stats: Bohemians have BTTS at 71% (80% in last 5), while Derry have 50% for the season and 60% in their last five. Bohemians score at home on average 1.71 goals per game with xG 1.95, and Derry concede away on average 1.00 goal with xG against 1.76, suggesting the hosts will create enough chances to score. Derry have xG_for 1.12 and a seasonal away scoring average of 0.83, while Bohemians concede at home on average 1.43 goals and have only 14% clean sheets, so the visitors also have a realistic chance to score. Additionally Bohemians register 6.43 shots on target and 16.43 shots overall at home versus Derry’s 3.0 shots on target and 9.5 shots, which supports a both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering these numbers and Bohemians’ creative edge, I tip BTTS - Yes as more likely: 72% vs 28% for No.

I calculated total expected goals as the average of attacking xG and defensive xG: Bohemians have attacking xG 1.95 and Derry defensive xG 1.76 → about 1.86 goals for the home side; Derry attacking xG 1.12 vs Bohemians defensive xG 1.01 → about 1.07 goals for the visitors, total 2.93. Bohemians average 16.43 shots and 6.43 on target per match versus Derry 9.5 and 3.0, indicating a clear offensive advantage for the hosts and a higher volume of scoring opportunities. This season Bohemians have 71% of matches Over 1.5 goals, Derry 50%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have approximately 60% of games Over 2.5, which confirms goal potential. A Poisson model with μ=2.93 yields probabilities of at least 2 goals 79%, at least 3 goals 56% and at least 4 goals 34%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, over).

The most likely scenario is 2/1 (Derry leads at half-time, Bohemians complete a turnaround and win) — I assign it a 30% probability. Bohemians tend to have weaker first halves: they led at the break in 2 of 7 matches (29%) and trailed in 4 of 7 (57%), while Derry away led in 2 of 6 (33%) and were level in 3 of 6 (50%), which increases the chance of the visitors holding a lead after 45 minutes. After the break the hosts accelerate significantly — they average 2.0 goals in second halves, have a positive second-half goal difference of +4 and have earned 11 points after half-time (an average of 1.57 points per match), and their xG is 1.95 versus Derry’s 1.12, indicating higher quality chances created by Bohemians. Additionally Bohemians average 6.43 shots on target at home compared to Derry’s 3.0 on the road and have scored 5 goals in minutes 76–90, while Derry conceded 3 goals in those minutes away, which reinforces the hypothesis of a late turnaround; alternatively I treat X/1 (20%) and 1/1 (10%) as other realistic options.