Bohemians vs Waterford: match statistics

Bohemians are the favourites for this match: at home they concede an average of 0.75 goals per game and have 50% clean sheets, while Waterford concede an average of 3.75 goals away and have not recorded a single clean sheet on the road. The hosts have scored 11 goals this season, averaging 1.25 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.28, whereas the visitors have only 7 goals this season and an away xG of 1.5 — Waterford creates chances but poor defence (20 goals conceded this season, 13 in the last 5) undermines their effectiveness. In the last 5 matches Bohemians have scored 3 and conceded only 1, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Waterford have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in that period, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Bohemians are also more precise — on average 5 shots on target and a 12% conversion rate versus 3.5 shots on target and 9% conversion for Waterford, which translates into higher quality chances for the hosts. Considering the defensive gap, form (PPG 1.8 for Bohemians vs 0.2 for Waterford in the last 5) and the visitors' lack of away wins (0), I back a home victory; I assign Bohemians 75% probability, 15% for a draw and 10% for a Waterford upset.

In my assessment the prevailing scenario is 'No Goal/No' — hosts Bohemians average just 0.4 goals at home this season and have scored 3 goals in the last 5 matches (0.6 per match), while conceding only 1 in those five (0.2 per match), yielding only 20% BTTS in that run. Visitors Waterford have a stronger seasonal attack (1.25 goals per match and xG_for 1.5 away, 14.5 shots and 3.5 on target on average), but in the last 5 matches they have scored only 4 goals (0.8 per match) and conceded 13 (2.6 per match), and the form 'lllld' indicates instability. Seasonal BTTS rates are 40% for the home side and 50% for the visitors, with the league at 49% BTTS — nominally even; however Bohemians’ last 5 xG_for of 1.62 versus an actual 0.6 goals per match points to poor finishing and increases the likelihood that one team will fail to score. Considering the hosts’ low goals average (0.4 seasonally), their low shot conversion rate of 4% versus Waterford’s 9%, and recent trends (20% BTTS at home vs 40% BTTS away in the last 5), I assign 70% to 'No' and 30% to 'BTTS - Yes'.

The strongest signal comes from Waterford’s weak defense: the team concedes an average of 3.75 goals away per season and has let in 13 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 2.6), with an xG against of 2.32 (last 5: 2.51). Bohemians generate a season xG of 1.05 (last 5: 1.62) but their official goals scored average is only 0.4 due to a low shot conversion rate of 4%, which suggests their true scoring potential is underestimated against a brittle defense. Waterford has xG_for 1.5 and scores on average 1.25 goals with 14.5 shots per game, while Bohemians allow opponents an xG of 2.2 per match — together this yields a high likelihood of goals from both sides. Averaging these values I estimate expected goals of about 1.91 for Bohemians and 1.42 for Waterford (total 3.33), therefore I recommend the over as the play, with Over 1.5 as the preferred line (approx. 95% probability) and strong support also for Over 2.5 (~72%).

I predict a draw at half-time and a Bohemians win at full-time (X/1). Bohemians’ last five matches show form “wwddd” — 2 wins (40%) and 3 draws (60%) — and they averaged 1.8 points and 0.4 goals by the break, while Waterford’s last five read “lllld” with 0% wins and they concede an average of 2.6 goals per match. Seasonally Waterford concedes 3.75 goals per game, and away they are particularly poor after the break — conceding 6 goals in minutes 76–90 — whereas Bohemians have conceded only 0.2 goals on average in their last five. Although Waterford generate higher xG (1.50 vs 1.05) and more shots (14.5 vs 9.2), their form and high goals-against average indicate Bohemians have the advantage in the second half, hence X/1 is the strongest signal.