Bolívar vs Independiente Petrolero: match statistics

Bolívar holds a clear advantage in offensive metrics and possession: on average 26 shots per game and 12 shots on target at home with 69% possession, compared to 6 shots and 3 on target and 37% possession for Independiente Petrolero. The difference in quality of chances is reflected in xG: Bolívar records an average home xG of 2.76, while the visitors have xG 0.79 on the road, meaning the hosts generate over three times more high-value opportunities. In goalscoring Bolívar averages 5 goals per home match, whereas Petrolero averages 2 goals away; although the visitors’ shot conversion is 33% versus 19% for the hosts, with only 6 shots per game that efficiency is not stable. Defensively both teams concede on average 2 goals per game, and in the last 5 matches the hosts have conceded 8 goals and the visitors 9, however the points per game in the last 5 is 1.4 for Bolívar versus 0.4 for Petrolero, indicating a points and form advantage for the home side. Based on this I forecast a home win: 75% probability for Bolívar, 15% for a draw and 10% for an Independiente Petrolero victory.

The “BTTS - Yes” scenario looks stronger: Independiente Petrolero has 100% of matches this season with both teams scoring, Bolívar has 60% BTTS in the last 5 fixtures, and the league BTTS average is 56%. Petrolero conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 per game) and has a seasonal xG_against around 2.01, indicating defensive vulnerability; Bolívar scored 9 goals in their last 5 (1.8 per game) and has last5 xG_for ≈1.81, showing they create chances. Bolívar averages 15 shots and 4 on target per game versus 6 and 3 for the visitors, and seasonal xG_for is 1.45 compared to 0.79 for Petrolero, which increases the home side’s likelihood to score. Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season (0% clean sheets) and there are inconsistencies in seasonal data (e.g. seasonal average goals scored at home listed as 0.0 despite 7 goals scored), so I apply a moderate margin of uncertainty, but the statistical signals favor “Yes.”

The model projects 1.73 goals for Bolívar and 1.17 goals for Independiente Petrolero, yielding a total of 2.90. This stems from xG analysis: the home side has an attacking xG of 1.45 while the away defense concedes on average 2.01 xG; the visitors have attacking xG of 0.79 while the home defense concedes 1.54 xG, which translates to the indicated values. Using a Poisson model with a mean of 2.90, the probability of Over 1.5 is about 79% (probability of at least 2 goals ≈78.5%), Over 2.5 about 55% (at least 3 goals ≈55.4%), and Over 3.5 about 33% (at least 4 goals ≈33.1%). Additionally, the league averages 3.13 goals per match, and season metrics for both teams show 100% of matches over 2.5 goals, although in the last 5 matches Bolívar has 40% Over 2.5 and Petrolero 60%, producing a mixed but still supportive signal for Over. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest and safest signal, with an estimated probability of around 79%.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time — both home and away teams were tied after 45 minutes in 100.0% of their matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0, drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 100.0), so an X at the break is favored. In the second half the numbers, however, lean toward the visitors: the home side concedes on average 3.0 goals after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_home = 3.0), while the away team scores on average 1.0 goal after half-time (scored_2hg_avg_away = 1.0) and has a season away goals average of 2.0 (seasonScoredAVG_away = 2.0). Although the hosts create more (xG 1.45 versus 0.79 for the visitors and on average 15 shots vs 6), their home finishing is non-existent (seasonScoredAVG_home = 0.0, shot_conversion_rate_home = 0.0), which explains the lack of goals at half-time and the low conversion of created chances. Additionally, the hosts lost all of their home matches (losePercentage_home = 100.0) despite having a 40.0% win rate overall in the last 5 games (last5_winPercentage_overall_home = 40.0), so there is a small chance for an X/1 scenario, but this is a weaker signal than the conceded goals after the break. In summary, the most likely HT/FT is draw at half-time and away win at full-time (X/2) — I assign it 60%; alternatively draw/draw 18% and draw/home win 12%, with the remaining scenarios making up the final 10%.