Bologna vs Inter Milan: match statistics

I predict an away win (2): Inter is the favorite, sitting 1st in the table versus Bologna in 8th. Inter averages 2.00 goals on the road and records 5.22 shots on target per away match, while Bologna at home has only 0.89 goals and 3.83 shots on target; conversion rate difference is 12% versus 6%, meaning Inter converts roughly twice as many chances. Defensively Inter concedes 0.89 goals on average away and has 56% clean sheets, while Bologna concedes 1.11 at home and has 39% clean sheets; xG is 1.79 for Inter versus 1.58 for Bologna, confirming the better quality of chances for the visitors. Form also favors Inter: in the last 5 matches the visitors averaged 2.2 points per game (3 wins, 2 draws), while Bologna averaged 1.4 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). I therefore estimate probabilities of 72% for Inter, 16% for a draw and 12% for Bologna.

In my assessment, BTTS - No is more likely because Inter have 56% clean sheets away, and Bologna have scored only 4 goals in their last 5 matches (0.8 per game). Seasonally Bologna score 2.63 goals at home with a seasonal BTTS of 53%, but the last 5 matches show a large deviation — BTTS only 20%. Inter have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per game) and concede on average 0.6 goals, indicating strong defensive form and realistic chances of a clean sheet. xG comparison shows: Bologna attacking xG 2.08 vs Inter conceded xG 1.04 → average ~1.56 for Bologna; Inter attacking xG 1.79 vs Bologna conceded xG 1.02 → average ~1.40; despite these xG figures, Inter’s high percentage of clean sheets and league clean sheet rate of 65% shift the balance toward No. On this basis I assign 65% to No and 35% to Yes, because Inter’s current defense and Bologna’s drop in efficiency over the last 5 matches are stronger signals than seasonal goal averages.

The combined expected goals based on xG are 1.56 for Bologna and 1.41 for Inter, totaling 2.97 expected goals per match. A Poisson model with lambda=2.97 implies roughly an 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals and 57% for Over 2.5 goals, which strongly favors the over. Seasonal metrics support this signal: Bologna have 89% of matches Over 1.5, Inter 78%, and both teams record 100% of matches with at least one goal. Although Bologna have averaged 0.8 goals in the last 5 games (4 in 5) and Inter 2.0 (10 in 5), Bologna seasonally register 6.84 shots on target and a 14% conversion rate, which sustains the likelihood of goals. Considering the xG, shot volume and high seasonal Over 1.5 rates, the best selection is Over 1.5.

The strongest signal is Inter’s strong starts: in 4 of their last 5 matches Inter led at the break (80%) and averaged 1.2 first-half goals, while Bologna in their last 5 averaged 0.4 goals by half-time and conceded 0.8. Over the season Bologna at home led at the break in 58% of matches and average 1.0 half-time goals, but Inter as the away side records 56% leads at the break and has 72% away wins, which keeps Inter as a realistic favorite to take the lead at half-time. However, Bologna have a season-long strong second half at home—an average of 1.63 goals after the break and 63% of matches with at least 2 goals in the second half—providing a real chance of a turnaround, although in their last 5 their second-half effectiveness has dropped to 0.4 goals. Considering Inter’s dominant starts (80% HT leads in the last 5) and Bologna’s weaker recent stats in both halves (0.4 goals HT and 0.4 goals after the break), the most likely scenario is Inter leading at half-time and the visitors winning full-time. Therefore I assign HT/FT 2/2 a 24% probability, with 1/1 second at 16% and 2/X third at 12% as alternatives.