Bologna vs Roma: match statistics

Roma is the favorite for this match based on quantitative data: they have 18 wins this season versus Bologna's 14 and have conceded only 29 goals compared to the hosts' 39, indicating a clearly better away defence. In the last five matches Roma scored 10 goals and conceded 10, while Bologna scored only 5 and also conceded 10, and Roma's points average in that period is 1.4 versus Bologna's 1.2. Bologna at home generates higher expected goals (1.61 xG per match) than Roma away (1.29 xG), but has a lower shot conversion rate (7% conversion vs 11% for Roma) and more often finishes matches without scoring (38% FTS vs 25% for Roma), which limits the value of their better chances. Defensive stats per match are similar — Bologna concedes on average 1.13 goals at home, Roma concedes 1.19 away — and both teams record an average of 3.94 shots on target per match, so the game should be balanced in quality, but more efficient chance finishing favors Roma. On that basis I predict a Roma win and propose the probability distribution: Bologna 28%, draw 24%, Roma 48%.

Seasonal signals favor "no": Bologna has BTTS in only 29% of home matches and keeps a clean sheet in 53% of fixtures, while Roma has a season BTTS of 44% and away clean sheets at 31%; the league average BTTS is 46%, placing the pair slightly below the league mean. Bologna averages 1.59 goals at home (xG 1.75) and concedes just 0.59 per match, whereas Roma scores 1.19 away (xG 1.29) and concedes 1.19 (xG against 1.38), so the expected profile favors Bologna's defense. Recent form from the last 5 matches is mixed: Bologna has 40% BTTS and concedes an average of 2.0 goals in the last 5, while Roma has 60% BTTS and scores an average of 2.0 goals, which gives some support to the "yes" case. Weighing Bologna's strong seasonal profile (53% clean sheets, 29% BTTS) against Roma's short-term form, I assess BTTS at 35% for "yes" and 65% for "no" and recommend backing "no".

The model combining attacking and defensive strength (average xG) yields 1.57 goals for Bologna (xG attack 1.75 vs Roma defensive xG 1.38 → (1.75+1.38)/2 ≈ 1.57) and 1.13 for Roma ((1.29+0.97)/2 ≈ 1.13), total 2.70. With lambda 2.70 (above the league average 2.43) the Poisson distribution gives about a 75% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~51% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~29% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal figures support Over 1.5: Bologna had Over 1.5 in 65% of home matches, Roma 56% away, while Bologna also kept a clean sheet in 53% of home games, which limits the risk of a very high-scoring outcome. The last 5 matches show increased intensity — both teams have 60% Over 2.5 in their last 5, and recent xG is 1.37 for Bologna and 1.66 for Roma, explaining the moderate chance for Over 2.5 (~51%). Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5), since the expected 2.70 goals and 75% probability of exceeding 1.5 provide a clear edge.

Half-Time statistics show Bologna led at home in 6 of 17 matches (35%) and were level at half-time in 9 of 17 (53%), with an average of 0.59 goals scored by half-time and only 0.18 conceded by half-time. After the break the hosts are proactive — they average 1.0 goals in the second half at home and collect an average of 2.0 points from second halves, with 82% of their home matches featuring at least one goal after the break. Additionally, Bologna’s home xG is 1.75 versus Roma’s 1.29 away, and average shots on target are 5.0 compared to 3.94, giving the hosts an offensive edge. Roma were leading at the break in 44% of their away games but concede an average of 0.75 goals after half-time and have a lower season points-per-game (1.38 versus Bologna’s 2.12), so a draw at half-time followed by a home win is more likely. Therefore my primary pick is X/1 (draw at half-time, Bologna to win) with an assigned probability of 32%, with the second most likely scenario 1/1 at 28%.