Bologna vs Sassuolo: match statistics

Sassuolo have the stronger record over their last five matches, winning 2 games and scoring 9 goals, while Bologna have suffered 4 defeats, scored 4 goals and averaged just 0.6 points per game. The visitors create significantly more high-quality chances away from home, posting an xG of 2.27 compared with Bologna’s 1.45 at home, while also averaging 22 shots and 8 on target against the hosts’ 14 and 5, respectively. Bologna have failed to score in 100% of their home appearances and, despite averaging 59% possession, have so far been unable to convert their chances. Sassuolo’s defence does, however, concede an average of 2 goals away from home and allows opponents an xG of 1.60, giving the hosts a realistic chance to end their scoring drought. Nevertheless, the visitors’ greater consistency in creating chances and stronger attacking output ultimately point to a Sassuolo win.

Seasonal data clearly supports goals at both ends: Bologna and Sassuolo have a BTTS rate of 100%, and neither team has kept a clean sheet so far. The hosts average 2.0 goals scored at home but concede 1.0, while Sassuolo score 1.0 goal away and allow opponents 2.0. The visitors’ attacking potential is further highlighted by an average xG of 2.27 and 8 shots on target per match, meaning their seasonal goalscoring average may be understated. Caution is warranted due to Bologna’s recent form, with just 0.8 goals scored and BTTS landing in 40% of their last five matches, but Sassuolo recorded 80% BTTS over the same period and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. Bologna’s attacking quality advantage over the visitors’ weak defence, combined with both teams’ regular tendency to allow chances, makes BTTS - Yes more likely than BTTS - No. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The projected goal total is 2.76, as Bologna averaged 1.16 xG over their last five matches, while Sassuolo allowed opponents 1.36 xG. The visitors possess even greater attacking potential: their five-match average stands at 1.68 xG, compared with 1.33 xG conceded by Bologna. During this period, Sassuolo scored 9 goals and conceded 10, while Bologna scored 4 and allowed 8, supporting a game with at least two goals. In Sassuolo’s last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 100% of games, while both teams exceeded 1.5 goals in every available match played in the analyzed setup. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as it combines the high projection of 2.76 goals with clearly lower risk than the more demanding 2.5 line.

Sassuolo have stronger recent form: they have won 40% of their last five matches and averaged 1.8 goals, while Bologna have won only once, scored 0.8 goals per game and lost 80% of their fixtures. The visitors are particularly dangerous before the break, averaging 1.0 first-half goal in this run compared with Bologna’s 0.25, while the hosts have conceded 1.0 goal on average. Bologna were level at half-time in 75% of their recent matches, but Sassuolo were either leading or level after 45 minutes in 60% of theirs, making an early advantage for the visitors a realistic prospect. After the break, the hosts have averaged no goals across their last five appearances, whereas Sassuolo have scored 0.8, supporting the scenario of the visitors maintaining their lead. Although Bologna have a seasonal home average of 2.0 goals and Sassuolo generate a high xG of 2.27, the hosts’ poor current form primarily points towards an HT/FT scenario of Sassuolo leading at the break and winning at full-time (2/2).