Boreham Wood vs Rochdale: match statistics
Boreham Wood vs Rochdale: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Boreham Wood played Rochdale in National League (England). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 3:5.
Current form
Boreham Wood: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Rochdale: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Boreham Wood scores 2.04 and concedes 1.23 goals per match. Rochdale scores 1.91 and concedes 0.89. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Boreham Wood 60%, Rochdale 57%. Over 2.5: Boreham Wood 71%, Rochdale 60%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
Boreham Wood has higher xG: 1.85 vs 1.63. Boreham Wood: 13.8 shots per match, Rochdale: 12.4.
Match halves
Boreham Wood: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.08. Rochdale: half-time lead 49%, second-half goals 0.96.
Goals by minute
Boreham Wood: 76-90+ (24 goals). Rochdale: 31-45+ (20 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Boreham Wood arrive to this match in excellent form: 5 wins in their last 5 games, 10 goals scored (2.0 per game) and only 1 conceded (0.2 per game), averaging 3.0 pts per game in this period. Rochdale are stable, with a 3W-2D record in their last 5, scoring 7 goals (1.4 per game) and conceding 4 (0.8 per game), i.e. 2.2 pts per game. Seasonally the hosts show stronger attacking numbers: 98 goals in the season and 2.04 goals per home game versus 90 goals and 1.74 goals per away game for Rochdale. Defensively the edge is slight for the visitors — 42 goals conceded this season versus 59 for Boreham, and away conceded average for Rochdale is 0.91 versus 1.00 for the hosts — however Boreham dominate in chance creation (home xG 1.87 vs away xG for the visitors 1.50 and shots on target 6.21 vs 5.04). Considering the advantage in chance creation and the hosts’ form, I indicate a Boreham victory with a probability distribution: 55% home, 25% draw, 20% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have similar season BTTS rates: Boreham Wood 58% and Rochdale 57%, with the league average at 56%, favoring the YES option on a season basis. Boreham Wood average 2.08 goals scored (xG 1.75) and concede 0.88, while Rochdale score 1.74 (xG 1.50) and concede 0.91; both sides average 13.63 and 11.13 shots with 5.5 and 5.04 on target, so they create scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches there is divergence: Boreham Wood had BTTS in only 20% (in last 5 they scored 10 and conceded 1), whereas Rochdale in 80% (in last 5 they scored 7 and conceded 4), which lowers confidence in the prediction. Despite the home side’s excellent recent defense over the last 5 (0.2 goals conceded on average) and a high share of clean sheets this season (clean sheets 42% and 43%), the overall xG balance (1.75 vs 1.50) and seasonal goal tallies (98 vs 90) suggest a higher probability that both teams will score. Therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated 62% vs 38% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and goal statistics point to a moderately high-scoring game: Boreham Wood has xG 1.75 and averages 2.08 goals per match, Rochdale has xG 1.50 and averages 1.74; after averaging with the opponent’s xG (Rochdale concedes 1.24, Boreham Wood 1.06) I expect 1.50 goals for the home side and 1.28 for the visitors, totaling 2.78. A Poisson model with lambda = 2.78 yields probability of over 1.5 goals around 77%, and seasonal over 1.5 rates are 83% for the home team and 78% for the visitors; therefore I assess over 1.5 at 78%. Over 2.5 is less clear: Poisson shows ~53%, seasonal over 2.5 rates are 63% (Boreham) and 57% (Rochdale), and in the last 5 matches both teams have over 2.5 at 60%, so my estimate gives 56% for over 2.5. Over 3.5 remains unlikely (~30% per the model and seasonal 25–30%), so under 3.5 at 70% is the safer choice. Additionally, the share of matches with both teams scoring is 58% (home) and 57% (away), and the average shots on target are 5.5 and 5.04; this further supports over 1.5 as the strongest betting signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time a draw is more likely: Boreham Wood were level at the break in 54% of their matches, while Rochdale did so in 30% of cases, providing a strong signal for an X at half-time. The full-time outcome favours the home side: Boreham Wood win 79% of matches versus 65% for Rochdale, score on average 2.08 goals per game compared with 1.74, and have a higher xG of 1.75 versus 1.50, indicating a qualitative advantage. In the second half the hosts score on average 1.00 and concede 0.42 (difference +0.58), while the visitors score 0.91 and concede 0.65 (difference +0.26), so Boreham Wood have greater potential after the break. The last 5 matches show 5 wins for the home side versus Rochdale’s 3 wins and 2 draws (60% win rate), giving Boreham Wood a mental edge. As both teams have BTTS around 57–58% (58% hosts vs 57% visitors), the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Boreham Wood | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Boreham Wood is 36% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Boreham Wood · 2.2 pts / match - Rochdale
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Boreham Wood is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
2.04 goals / match - Boreham Wood · 1.91 goals / match - Rochdale
Rochdale is 38% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.23 goals / match - Boreham Wood · 0.89 goals / match - Rochdale
Boreham Wood scores in 94% of matches (45 of 48 matches), while Rochdale keeps a clean sheet in 43% (20 of 47 matches).
Rochdale scores in 96% of matches (45 of 47 matches), while Boreham Wood keeps a clean sheet in 38% (18 of 48 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Boreham Wood
Over / Under - Rochdale
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Boreham Wood - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Rochdale - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 49% of matches and wins 72%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (24 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): +15 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (20 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Boreham Wood
Rochdale
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Boreham Wood | Liga | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.27 | 2.91 | ▼ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 56% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 24% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 71% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Boreham Wood 0 - 0 - 2 Rochdale. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Boreham Wood vs Rochdale?
The National League match finished Boreham Wood 3:5 Rochdale. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Boreham Wood and Rochdale?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Boreham Wood won 0, Rochdale won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Boreham Wood vs Rochdale?
Boreham Wood score 2.04 goals per game on average and Rochdale 1.91. The National League average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Boreham Wood's matches and 57% of Rochdale's.
What form are Boreham Wood and Rochdale in?
Over the last 5 games Boreham Wood have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Rochdale 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Boreham Wood vs Rochdale?
The statistical background for Boreham Wood vs Rochdale — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.