Borneo vs Bali United: match statistics

Bali United sit in 2nd place and have won both of their league matches so far, scoring 6 goals and conceding just 2. In their last five games, the visitors have recorded 4 wins, scored 13 goals and averaged 2.4 points per match, while Borneo have managed 3 wins, a draw and a defeat over the same period. However, Borneo have been significantly weaker at home: they lost their only match, failed to score and, despite an xG of 1.07, were inefficient in front of goal. The hosts’ defence allowed opponents an xG of 0.62 and conceded one goal, while their attack averages just 3 shots on target from 9 attempts. Bali United’s superior current efficiency and run of four consecutive victories point to a greater likelihood of an away win.

The latest form of both teams points to goals at both ends: Borneo have averaged 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Bali United have averaged as many as 2.6. Bali United recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five fixtures, compared with 40% for Borneo, although the hosts scored 11 goals during this period. Their attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.61 for Borneo and 1.67 for Bali United, while the visitors conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match. Borneo have defended relatively solidly, with an average of 0.8 goals conceded, but Bali United’s attacking strength and their four-match winning streak point to the visitors scoring at least once. Therefore, BTTS - No is not the preferred outcome, as it means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically indicate a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Both teams come into this match in strong attacking form: Borneo have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while Bali United have scored 13. Borneo conceded just 0.8 goals per game during this period, but Bali United averaged 2.6 goals scored, which limits the value of a very low-scoring scenario. Chance-quality metrics also support goals, with average xG from the last five matches standing at 1.61 for Borneo and 1.67 for Bali United. Bali United’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five appearances, while the league average of 2.89 goals is also close to the projected 2.95. Over 1.5 goals remains the strongest selection, as just two goals are needed to cover it, and the current data for both teams clearly points to a high probability of reaching that minimum.

The strongest scenario is Bali United leading at the break and holding on for the win, as the visitors were ahead after 45 minutes in all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals in that period and conceding none. Over the same span, Borneo took the lead in only 40% of their matches and went into half-time trailing in 40%; they averaged 1.0 goals scored before the break against 0.4 conceded. The recent five-match record also slightly favors Bali United: 4 wins, an average of 2.6 goals scored and 2.4 points per match, compared with Borneo’s 3 wins and an average of 2.2 goals. After the break, both teams have averaged 1.2 goals scored across their last five appearances, but Bali United have conceded an average of 1.2 goals in that period, making a draw or a turnaround by the hosts realistic possibilities. However, the hosts’ current-season home data are based on just 2 matches, so their 100% home-win record should not outweigh Bali United’s clearly superior five-match form.