Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen: match statistics

Borussia Dortmund has a clear home edge: they win 79% of home matches, average 2.36 goals and register 5.57 shots on target per game, while Bayer Leverkusen achieve 43% wins away, average 1.86 goals and 3.79 shots on target. Defensively the gap is significant — Dortmund concedes 0.93 goals at home on average and keep a clean sheet in 57% of matches, whereas Leverkusen concede 1.71 goals away and keep a clean sheet in only 7% of games. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 11 goals, but Dortmund conceded 6 with 4 wins (avg. 2.4 points per game), while Leverkusen conceded 10 with only 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (avg. 1.2 points per game). Quality-of-chances metrics also favor the hosts: Dortmund’s average xG at home is 1.76 with xG against 1.07, versus xG 1.42 and xG against 1.62 for Leverkusen away. Given 0% goalless games for Borussia at home versus 29% goalless games for Leverkusen away, plus the advantage in shots on target and clean sheets, I back the home win and propose probability distribution: 68% for 1, 18% for draw, 14% for 2.

The 'both teams to score' scenario is more likely: season BTTS rate is 57% for Borussia Dortmund and 64% for Bayer Leverkusen, versus a league average of 60%. In the last 5 matches Dortmund had BTTS in 3/5 (60%) and Leverkusen in 4/5 (80%), with Dortmund conceding on average 1.2 goals and Leverkusen 2.0 goals over that span. Attack/defence analysis indicates goals are realistic — Dortmund at home scores 2.29 goals on average with xG 1.87 and concedes 1.07, while Leverkusen away scores 1.86 goals with xG 1.42 and concedes 1.71 (xG against 1.62). Additionally, Leverkusen have only 7% clean sheets away compared to Dortmund’s 43% at home, increasing the likelihood that at least one team will concede. Considering the 57% vs 64% season BTTS, 60% vs 80% in the last 5, and Leverkusen’s higher concession averages, I set the probability of BTTS - Yes at 75% and No at 25%.

The model based on xG and goal averages projects approximately 3.04 expected goals in this match: Dortmund 1.75 xG vs Leverkusen 1.29 xG. Dortmund scores 2.29 goals per home game on average with an xG of 1.87, while Leverkusen travel with a 1.86 goals average and 1.42 xG; their defenses concede 1.07 and 1.71 goals per match respectively, which increases the likelihood of goals. This season Over 1.5 occurred in 93% of Dortmund’s matches and 79% of Leverkusen’s, therefore I forecast 92% for Over 1.5 (Under 8%). The 2.5 line also has strong backing: season rates 50% (Dortmund) and 64% (Leverkusen) and league-wide 62% — I assign 65% for Over 2.5 (Under 35%); for 3.5 the seasonal 36% and 50% indicate a lower 42% for Over 3.5 (Under 58%). From these figures the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5, so I recommend backing Over at the 1.5 line.

Dortmund holds a clear advantage across match data: they average 2.29 goals at home versus Leverkusen’s 1.86 away, possess higher xG (1.87 vs 1.42) and more shots on target (6.0 vs 3.79), translating into more scoring opportunities. In first halves the hosts often lead — Dortmund was leading at the break in 7 matches (50%) and averages 1.14 goals at half-time while conceding only 0.64, whereas Leverkusen scores 1.29 by half-time and concedes 1.00; this gives a slight edge to the home side at the break. After the break Dortmund are even stronger: they add on average 1.14 goals in the second half and have a +10 goal differential in second halves, while Leverkusen sit at -2; additionally, in the last 5 matches Dortmund have won 80% (4 of 5) and Leverkusen only 20% (1 of 5). For these reasons the most likely HT/FT scenario is Dortmund leading at the break and the hosts winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1).