Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg: match statistics

Borussia Dortmund is the favorite based on league position and home metrics: they sit 2nd, win 73% of home matches and average 2.2 goals per home game with xG 1.74 and 5.27 shots on target per match. In their last 5 fixtures Dortmund scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) and averaged 1.8 points per game, though they lost 2 of those 5 matches, indicating some form volatility. Freiburg have excellent recent form over the last 5 matches (4 wins, 10 goals, 2.0 goals per match and 2.4 points per match), but are weaker away: only 1.07 goals per game, xG 1.19, 47% of away matches without scoring and 53% defeats. Dortmund defend better at home (0.93 goals conceded per match and 53% clean sheets) than Freiburg do away (1.87 goals conceded per match and 27% clean sheets), and a possession advantage 55% vs 45% and higher conversion 15% vs 10% increase the hosts' real threat. Considering these figures and the higher quality of chances against the visitors, I predict a home win; estimated probabilities: Dortmund 65%, draw 20%, Freiburg 15%.

Borussia Dortmund at home scores on average 1.87 goals per match (xG 1.63), while Freiburg concedes 1.87 goals on average this season and allows opponents xG 1.69, giving the hosts a real chance to score. On the other hand, Freiburg failed to score in 47% of their matches across the season, but in the last 5 matches they average 2.0 goals with xG 1.48, so the visitors’ attacking form has recently improved compared to their season average of 1.07 goals per match. BTTS stats are mixed: Dortmund at home have BTTS 80% and only 13% clean sheets, while Freiburg away have a season BTTS 40% and 27% clean sheets, which suggests a home scoring edge and moderate chances for the visitors. In the last 5 matches both teams have combined for relatively many goals — Dortmund scored 8 and conceded 5, Freiburg scored 10 and conceded 4 — which further supports the scenario that both sides will find the net. Considering Dortmund’s attacking strength (on average 5.27 shots on target vs Freiburg’s 3.27) and Freiburg’s offensive improvement, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% vs 35% for No.

I project 1.66 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.26 for Freiburg (total 2.92), computed as the average of home xG attack (1.63) and away xG defense (1.69) for Dortmund, and away xG attack (1.19) and home xG defense (1.32) for Freiburg. With an expected total of 2.92, a Poisson distribution yields probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈ 79%, Over 2.5 ≈ 56% and Over 3.5 ≈ 33%. Season data reinforce this signal: Borussia at home averages 1.87 goals and has 73% of matches with over 2.5 goals, while Freiburg away concedes 1.87 goals on average and has 53% of such matches. Additionally, Dortmund averages 5.27 SOT with a 13% conversion rate, and Freiburg 3.27 SOT with a 10% conversion, which increases the hosts’ scoring likelihood. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: "over", line 1.5) at ~79% probability; the 2.5 line is a moderate signal (~56%), and 3.5 is less likely (~33%).

The most likely scenario is Borussia Dortmund leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1). The hosts have led at the break in 40% of this season’s games versus 13% for Freiburg, and Dortmund averages 0.8 goals by half-time compared to 0.33 for their opponents; they also post higher xG (1.63 vs 1.19) and more on-target shots (5.27 vs 3.27). Freiburg concede as many as 13 goals in the 46–60 minute window, while Dortmund have scored 5 in that period, suggesting a high probability of a host goal after the break and maintenance of the lead. Although Freiburg have led at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), Dortmund’s season-long advantages in average goals (1.87 vs 1.07) and home win percentage (53% vs 27%) make the 1/1 scenario the strongest signal, although a half-time draw with a later home turnaround remains possible.