Boston River vs Cerro: match statistics
Boston River vs Cerro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Boston River played Cerro in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Boston River: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Cerro: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Boston River scores 0.93 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Cerro scores 0.53 and concedes 1.60. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Boston River 47%, Cerro 40%. Over 2.5: Boston River 40%, Cerro 33%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Cerro has higher xG: 1.29 vs 1.16. Boston River: 8.9 shots per match, Cerro: 11.3.
Match halves
Boston River: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.67. Cerro: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Boston River: 76-90+ (6 goals). Cerro: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-3-0. Average goals 0.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win. Boston River averages 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded at home, while Cerro on the road scores only 0.43 and concedes 2.57. The hosts register 4.75 shots on target per match versus the visitors' 2.29 and have a higher finishing rate: 10% vs 4%, translating into a tangible advantage in creating quality chances. Additionally, the hosts’ home xG is 1.27 against an xG conceded of 1.66, and their actual goals conceded are 0.66 lower, indicating strong goalkeeper/defensive performance or favorable variance in home matches. Cerro have won no away games (0% wins), suffer 86% away defeats, keep 0% clean sheets and have a negative away goal difference of -15; in their last 5 matches the visitors have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (PPG 0.4). Given the superiority in shots on target, finishing efficiency and the opponents’ poor defense (2.57 goals conceded away), I give the hosts a clearly higher probability of winning.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because both teams have recently shown a tendency to exchange goals: Boston River has a season BTTS 38% but BTTS 80% in the last 5 matches, while Cerro has a season BTTS 43% and 60% in the last 5. Cerro concedes an average of 2.57 goals per game this season (total 24 conceded) and 2.0 in the last 5 matches, and Boston concedes as much as 2.6 goals (13 conceded) in those 5 games, increasing the likelihood that both teams will find the net. Boston’s season goals average is 0.63, but in the last 5 matches they scored 1.2 on average (6 goals), and their home xG is 1.26 with 4.0 shots on target, which suggests realistic scoring potential. Cerro’s season average shots is 11.86 and xG 1.25, however a low conversion rate of 4% and zero clean sheets this season (0% CS) indicate that despite a season goals average of 0.43 there is a high chance they will score. Considering recent BTTS rates (80% vs 60%), Cerro’s poor defense (2.57 goals conceded per game), Boston River’s 4.0 shots on target and the league BTTS tendency of 53%, I assess BTTS probability at 70% versus 30% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals based on xG and the opponent’s defense: Boston River xG is 1.26, Cerro xG is 1.25. Combining the hosts’ attacking xG (1.26) with Cerro’s conceded xG (1.59) yields ~1.43 for Boston River and ~1.26 for Cerro, totalling ≈2.69 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.69 gives ~75% probability for >1.5 goals, ~51% for Over 2.5 goals and ~29% for Over 3.5 goals. Additionally, Cerro has 71% of matches season-to-date over 2.5 goals, while Boston River is 0% seasonally; however, in the last 5 matches Boston River had 80% Over 2.5 and conceded on average 2.6 goals, which raises the likelihood of more goals. Boston River averages 9.88 shots with 6% conversion, Cerro 11.86 shots with 4% — despite low conversion both teams generate xG ~1.25, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Seasonally Boston River have kept a clean sheet at half-time in 88% of matches (seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 88%) and have a low average goals scored by half-time of 0.13 (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.13), which favors a draw at the break. The second half typically produces decisive outcomes: hosts average 1.13 goals after the break (AVG_2hg_home = 1.13), and away matches finish with second-half goals in 100% of cases (over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100%), so I expect a turnaround after the interval. Visitors concede on average 2.57 goals per match over the season (seasonConcededAVG_away = 2.57) and are in poor form (last 5: 'ddlll' — 2 draws and 3 losses), while the hosts average 4.0 shots on target versus 2.29 for the opponent and have better finishing efficiency (6% vs 4%), which favors a Boston River win. In the last 5 matches the hosts led at half-time in 2 of 5 (40% — last5_leadingAtHTPercentage_overall_home = 40%), and the visitors did not lead in any of the last 5 (0% — last5_leadingAtHTPercentage_overall_away = 0%), which further supports the decisive goals coming after the break, hence the pick X/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Boston River | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Boston River is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Boston River · 0.4 pts / match - Cerro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Boston River is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
0.93 goals / match - Boston River · 0.53 goals / match - Cerro
Boston River is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Boston River · 1.6 goals / match - Cerro
Boston River scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 15 matches).
Cerro scores in 53% of matches (8 of 15 matches), while Boston River keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Boston River
Over / Under - Cerro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Boston River is 67% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Boston River · 0.6 pts / match - Cerro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Boston River - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Cerro - second-half results
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Boston River
Cerro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Boston River | Liga | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.27 | 2.50 | ▼ 2.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 54% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 48% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 25% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 72% | ▼ 47% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 78% | ▲ 93% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Boston River 0 - 3 - 0 Cerro. Average goals 0.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Boston River vs Cerro?
The Primera División match finished Boston River 4:1 Cerro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Boston River and Cerro?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Boston River won 0, Cerro won 0 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 0.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Boston River vs Cerro?
Boston River score 0.93 goals per game on average and Cerro 0.53. The Primera División average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Boston River's matches and 40% of Cerro's.
What form are Boston River and Cerro in?
Over the last 5 games Boston River have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Cerro 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Boston River vs Cerro?
The statistical background for Boston River vs Cerro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.