Botafogo SP vs Avaí: match statistics

Botafogo SP are the favorites: at home they average 1.43 goals scored with xG 1.61, while Avaí away average 1.0 goals with xG 1.09. The hosts’ defense looks better — Botafogo concede 1.14 goals per home game, Avaí concede 1.71 away; in the last 5 matches Avaí have conceded 8 goals versus 3 for Botafogo. The home side creates more chances (on average 14 shots and 5.43 on target per game) compared to Avaí (9.71 shots and 3 on target), with the same 10% conversion, translating into a superior goal differential (+2 for Botafogo at home vs -5 for Avaí away). Form confirms the edge: Botafogo in the last 5 have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, averaging 1.4 points per game, while Avaí have only 1 win and 4 losses and 0.6 points per game. Considering the advantage in xG, the lower share of matches without scoring (14% vs 29%) and Avaí’s weaker defense, I tip the home win, although the low 14% clean sheet rate for both teams suggests BTTS is likely.

I back BTTS - Yes: Avaí posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% and 60% in the last 5 matches, concedes on average 1.6 goals over the last 5 with xG against 2.08, indicating clear vulnerability to conceding. Botafogo SP at home, however, has 50% clean sheets and a seasonal BTTS of only 38%, with BTTS at 20% in the last 5 and conceding 0.6 goals on average, while generating xG 1.32 for the season and 1.7 in the last 5 and averaging 13 shots per game. Additionally Avaí concedes seasonally 1.71 goals with xG_against 2.11, which combined with the home side’s offensive activity increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Overall the BTTS signals are stronger (high xG against for Avaí 2.11/2.08 and Avaí’s BTTS frequency 57%/60% last5), therefore the prediction is Yes.

Combined xG suggests a relatively open game: Botafogo has an attacking xG of 1.32, Avaí concedes xG of 2.11 — the average of these values gives ~1.72 expected goals for the home side; Avaí’s attacking xG is 1.09 against Botafogo’s defense xG of 1.31 → ~1.20 for the visitors, total 2.92. A Poisson model with λ=2.92 yields ~79% probability of more than 1.5 goals, ~56% for over 2.5 and ~33% for over 3.5, indicating a higher likelihood of at least 2 strikes. Seasonal data confirm this signal: over 1.5 occurred 63% for Botafogo and 71% for Avaí (average 67%), while on the 2.5 line it’s 38% vs 57% (average ~48%). Additionally, Avaí concedes on average 1.71 goals per match; the hosts average 13 shots per match with 3.63 on target, so the shot profile and Avaí’s weak defense increase the probability of goals. Consequently I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (assigned probability Over 1.5 = 73%), while Over 2.5 is assessed at 52% and Over 3.5 at 27%.

Botafogo SP led at half-time in 38% of their matches this season; Avaí did not lead at half-time in any (0%), while half-time draws occurred in 50% of fixtures. The home side score an average of 0.50 goals by half-time versus 0.29 for the visitors, and concede 0.25 goals by half-time compared with 1.0 conceded by Avaí. Over full matches Botafogo produce 1.32 xG and average 13.0 shots (3.63 on target), whereas Avaí concede 2.11 xG to opponents and average 9.71 shots (3.0 on target), indicating a home advantage in chance creation. Avaí display a high away loss rate (losePercentage_away 71%) and low likelihood of a clean sheet (seasonCSPercentage_away 14%); on average 1.38 goals are scored in the second half of home teams’ matches and 1.43 in away teams’ matches, so while second-half goals are possible, Avaí’s defense looks vulnerable. Given that Botafogo keep a half-time clean sheet in 75% of home games (seasonCSPercentageHT_home 75%) and lead at the break in 38% of matches, while Avaí never lead at half-time (0%), the most likely scenario is a home lead at half-time and retention of the win to full-time — I assess this at 28% probability. Second preference is a half-time/full-time draw/draw (X/X) at 19% and a half-time draw, home win at full-time (X/1) at 18%; comebacks for Avaí are unlikely (e.g. away win/away win 2/2 only 8%).