Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: match statistics
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Botafogo SP played Vila Nova in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 3 October 2026. Venue: Estádio Santa Cruz. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Botafogo SP: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Vila Nova: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Botafogo SP scores 1.13 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Vila Nova scores 1.43 and concedes 1.03. League average: 2.35 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Botafogo SP 53%, Vila Nova 40%. Over 2.5: Botafogo SP 43%, Vila Nova 37%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Vila Nova has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.39. Botafogo SP: 12.7 shots per match, Vila Nova: 13.9.
Match halves
Botafogo SP: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.57. Vila Nova: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Botafogo SP: 31-45+ (8 goals). Vila Nova: 61-75 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.35 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Botafogo SP have a slight edge thanks to home advantage, where they average 1.64 goals from an xG of 1.52; Vila Nova score just 0.8 goals away from home from an xG of 1.23. The visitors have failed to score in 47% of their away matches, which could make it difficult to exploit the hosts’ defensive weaknesses, as Botafogo SP concede an average of 1.5 goals at home. However, Vila Nova have the clear advantage in recent form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Botafogo SP have won none and conceded 10 goals over that span. The league leaders have won 16 matches this season, compared with the hosts’ 8, but have lost 47% of their away fixtures. That makes backing the hosts a cautious pick: their superior finishing at home narrowly outweighs their opponents’ better current form.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal points to Vila Nova failing to score: they average 0.8 goals away from home and have been held scoreless in 47% of their matches, while Botafogo SP have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their home games. The hosts average 2.07 goals at home, and the visitors concede 1.33 away, making Botafogo SP failing to score seem less likely. Both teams have scored in 47% of the hosts’ matches and just 33% of the visitors’ matches, reinforcing the BTTS - No selection. However, this is not a strong pick: Botafogo SP have conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, while Vila Nova have recorded an xG of 1.73. Despite this countervailing evidence, Vila Nova’s poor away scoring record carries more weight in the overall assessment. BTTS - No means at least one team will fail to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 80% of Botafogo SP’s home matches and 87% of Vila Nova’s away matches. The hosts average 2.07 goals at home, but the visitors score just 0.80 away and failed to find the net in 47% of those matches, limiting the chances of a very high-scoring game. The chance balance also points to Botafogo SP having the edge, with a home xG of 1.75 compared with Vila Nova’s away xG of 1.23. The last five matches add some uncertainty, as Botafogo SP conceded an average of 2.0 goals; however, only 20% of Vila Nova’s matches over the same period went Over 2.5 goals. With a projected total of 2.40 goals, the 3.5 line offers a greater margin than the 2.5 line and best reflects both teams’ scoring patterns.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal in favour of Botafogo SP leading at the break is their home record: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 9 of 15 matches, while Vila Nova were trailing at the break in 6 of their 15 away fixtures. Botafogo average 1.13 first-half goals at home, whereas Vila Nova score just 0.33 goals in the first half away from home. Their 80% home win rate and average of 2.07 goals per match, compared with the visitors’ 0.80 goals per away match, also support them holding on to their lead. However, recent form tempers confidence in this pick: Botafogo have not won any of their last five matches, and all five were level at half-time; Vila Nova have won three times in that period. Despite this contrast, Botafogo’s full-season home advantage makes a home lead at half-time followed by a win at full-time the most likely individual HT/FT scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Botafogo SP | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vila Nova is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Botafogo SP · 2 pts / match - Vila Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vila Nova is 27% better for: goals scored per match.
1.13 goals / match - Botafogo SP · 1.43 goals / match - Vila Nova
Vila Nova is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Botafogo SP · 1.03 goals / match - Vila Nova
Botafogo SP scores in 67% of matches (20 of 30 matches), while Vila Nova keeps a clean sheet in 37% (11 of 30 matches).
Vila Nova scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Botafogo SP keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Botafogo SP
Over / Under - Vila Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vila Nova is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - Botafogo SP · 1.43 pts / match - Vila Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Botafogo SP - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Vila Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Botafogo SP
Vila Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Botafogo SP | Liga | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.33 | 2.35 | ▲ 2.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 47% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 43% | 43% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 31% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 67% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 75% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Botafogo SP 1 - 0 - 2 Vila Nova. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
The Serie B match finished Botafogo SP 0:1 Vila Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo SP and Vila Nova?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Botafogo SP won 1, Vila Nova won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
Botafogo SP score 1.13 goals per game on average and Vila Nova 1.43. The Serie B average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Botafogo SP's matches and 40% of Vila Nova's.
What form are Botafogo SP and Vila Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Botafogo SP have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Vila Nova 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
The statistical background for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.