Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia: match statistics

Levski Sofia remain unbeaten in the league, winning all 5 of their matches with a 15:2 goal difference, while Botev Plovdiv have managed just 2 wins in 6 games and have conceded 9 goals. The visitors are also in significantly better form: they have collected 13 points in their last five rounds, won 4 times and conceded no goals, whereas Botev have lost 3 of those 5 matches. Away from home, Levski average 2 goals per game, with a 17% shot conversion rate, compared with the hosts’ 1.67 goals and 12% conversion rate at home. Botev do create more high-quality chances at their own stadium, with an average xG of 2.06 compared with the opponents’ 1.73, but Levski control possession more effectively (61% to 56%) and restrict opponents to just 1.05 xG. The hosts are yet to lose at home, making a draw a realistic outcome, but Levski’s consistency and defensive solidity favour an away win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Levski’s current defensive form: they have not conceded a single goal in their last 5 matches, with an average xG conceded of just 0.95. Botev scored only 1.2 goals per match during this period and generated 1.44 xG, which may not be enough against such a solid defence. Levski should create chances themselves, having averaged 2.0 goals and 1.61 xG per match across their last five fixtures, while Botev conceded an average of 1.6 goals and allowed 1.49 xG. Although Botev have recorded 75% clean sheets across the season, their BTTS rate is only 25%, while Levski’s recent results include 0% of matches with goals from both teams. A scenario in which Levski score and Botev fail to breach the visitors’ defence is therefore more likely than goals at both ends.

The Under 3.5 goals line is strongly supported by both teams’ profiles: only 25% of Botev’s matches and none of Levski’s matches have gone over this line. Levski have conceded no goals in their last five matches, while their average xGA is just 0.95, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring performance from the hosts. Over the same run, Botev have scored only 1.2 goals per match, with an xG of 1.44, whereas Levski have averaged 2.0 goals per game. Although their season-long attacking metrics are strong, the projected total of 2.40 goals points more towards a scoreline with two to three goals than four or more.

In the available home sample, Botev Plovdiv won all four matches, leading at the break in 100% of them, with an average of 1.25 goals scored before half-time and no goals conceded. Away from home, Levski Sofia were level at half-time in all of their matches to date and failed to score in any of the first halves, clearly supporting the hosts’ early advantage. The hosts also have superior creative numbers: an average xG of 2.31 compared with 1.73, and 8.75 shots on target per match compared with the opponent’s 7.0. At the same time, the last five matches weigh more heavily in Levski’s favour, as they have avoided defeat in all of them and won 80%, meaning scenarios involving an equaliser or a turnaround after the break retain significant probability. However, the strongest individual outcome remains Botev leading at half-time and securing the full-time victory, supported by their perfect home record and just 0.25 goals conceded per match.