Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: match statistics
Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Botev Plovdiv played Lokomotiv Plovdiv in First League (Bulgaria). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Botev Plovdiv: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Botev Plovdiv scores 1.35 and concedes 1.19 goals per match. Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores 0.97 and concedes 1.10. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Botev Plovdiv 52%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 45%. Over 2.5: Botev Plovdiv 58%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 32%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Botev Plovdiv has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.33. Botev Plovdiv: 12.7 shots per match, Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 10.3.
Match halves
Botev Plovdiv: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.74. Lokomotiv Plovdiv: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.48.
Goals by minute
Botev Plovdiv: 76-90+ (9 goals). Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a Botev Plovdiv home win, as they are in significantly better form over the last 5 matches: 4 wins and 1 draw with 12 goals scored, while Lokomotiv have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with 6 goals. Botev create superior chances — average xG at home 1.77 versus visitors’ 1.34 xG away, with average shots on target 5.47 vs 3.73 and average attempts 14.47 vs 10.67 favoring the hosts. Defensively Botev have conceded only 1 goal in the last 5 matches (0.2 per game in that period) versus 3 conceded by Lokomotiv (0.6 per game), although seasonal conceded-goals averages are similar: 1.27 (Botev at home) vs 1.20 (Lokomotiv away). Limiting factors are 33% goalless matches for Botev at home and higher Lokomotiv conversion (10% vs 8%), and the visitors also have a high away draw rate of 60%, increasing the chance of a point share. Considering PPG in the last 5 matches (2.6 vs 1.2) and the superiority in quality of chances, I assess probabilities as: home win 60%, draw 25%, away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal data give mixed signals: Botev has season BTTS at 25% with 50% clean sheets, while Lokomotiv has BTTS 67% and only 20% clean sheets; league-wide BTTS occurs in 44% of matches. However, the last 5 matches clearly favor a No Goal scenario — Botev scored 12 goals in the last 5 (2.4 avg) and conceded only 1 (0.2), while Lokomotiv scored 6 (1.2) and conceded 3 (0.6). xG and shots stats are balanced (xG 1.32 vs 1.34; xG against 1.33 vs 1.42; shots on target 3.63 vs 3.73), indicating similar chance creation, but the significantly higher clean sheet rate for the home side shifts the balance. Considering Botev's 50% clean sheets, the league clean sheet rate of 70% and the hosts' recent form, I tip No Goal with 70% probability versus 30% for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals based on xG and opponent parameters are 1.37 for Botev (average of 1.32 home attack xG and 1.42 away defense xG) and 1.34 for Lokomotiv (average of 1.34 away attack xG and 1.33 home defense xG), yielding a total of 2.71. Using a Poisson distribution with mean 2.71, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is approximately 75%, 3+ goals (Over 2.5) about 51%, and 4+ goals (Over 3.5) about 29%. Team form confirms this picture: Botev scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 avg) and conceded 1 (0.2), Lokomotiv scored 6 (1.2) and conceded 3 (0.6), suggesting home attacking activity and away vulnerability. Seasonal indicators show Over 1.5 in 50% of home matches and 80% of away matches, and BTTS 25% for home vs 67% for away. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (75% chance) — Over 2.5 is marginal (~51%) and does not offer the same edge, while Over 3.5 is unlikely (~29%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The primary indicator is the home side’s form: in their last 5 matches Botev have won 4 of 5 (80%), while Lokomotiv have just 1 win in their last 5 (20%), and the season-long points averages are 1.75 for the hosts versus 1.20 for the visitors. At half-time the hosts have led in 6 of their season matches (40%) and also in 40% of the last 5 fixtures, with the average first-half goals in the last five matches being 1.0 for Botev versus 0.4 for Lokomotiv. In the second half the statistics also favor Botev: the visitors conceded 6 goals in the 61–75 minute interval, while the hosts conceded only 1 goal in the same period, and both teams’ xG are similar (1.32 vs 1.34), which suggests Botev’s advantage is mainly form and finishing. On this basis the safest scenario is the hosts leading at the break and maintaining the win to full-time — I select 1/1 as the best tip (28% probability), with the second-strongest signal being X/1 (21%) and a notable probability of half-time draw and full-time draw (X/X 15%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Botev Plovdiv is 63% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Botev Plovdiv · 1.6 pts / match - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Botev Plovdiv is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.35 goals / match - Botev Plovdiv · 0.97 goals / match - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.19 goals / match - Botev Plovdiv · 1.1 goals / match - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv scores in 71% of matches (22 of 31 matches), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv keeps a clean sheet in 35% (11 of 31 matches).
Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores in 71% of matches (22 of 31 matches), while Botev Plovdiv keeps a clean sheet in 32% (10 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Botev Plovdiv
Over / Under - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / match - Botev Plovdiv · 1.52 pts / match - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Botev Plovdiv - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Botev Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First League).
Teams vs league
| Botev Plovdiv | Liga | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.55 | 2.31 | ▼ 2.06 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 43% | ▲ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 45% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 32% | 35% | • 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 61% | 63% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 74% | 72% | ▼ 58% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Botev Plovdiv 1 - 1 - 0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The First League match finished Botev Plovdiv 0:2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Botev Plovdiv won 1, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Botev Plovdiv score 1.35 goals per game on average and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.97. The First League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Botev Plovdiv's matches and 45% of Lokomotiv Plovdiv's.
What form are Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Plovdiv in?
Over the last 5 games Botev Plovdiv have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.