Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna: match statistics

Botev Plovdiv has a clear advantage in chance creation — at home they average 13.62 shots and 4.77 on target with xG 1.66, while Spartak Varna away manage only 6.77 shots, 1.62 on target and xG 0.90. In the last 5 matches Botev scored 4 goals and collected 8 points (1.6 per match), whereas Spartak scored 3 goals, collected 3 points (0.6 per match) and conceded 12 goals. Spartak fail to score in 54% of their away matches, while Botev have 38% such games at home, increasing the hosts' probability of at least one goal. Spartak away register 2.16 xG per game against with 1.23 goals conceded per match, indicating many quality chances created against them; Botev face 1.52 xG against and concede 1.38 goals at home. Considering the superiority in shots (13.62 vs 6.77), accuracy (4.77 vs 1.62), higher xG (1.66 vs 0.90) and markedly better points in the last 5 matches (8 vs 3), I forecast a home win.

Seasonal indicators are mixed: Botev Plovdiv has BTTS in 71% of matches and scores an average of 1.21 goals, while Spartak Varna has BTTS 46% and scores only 0.54 goals per match, with Spartak failing to score in 54% of fixtures. In the last 5 matches Spartak averaged 0.6 goals scored and conceded 2.4, while Botev in their last 5 averaged 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded, indicating offensive issues for Spartak despite a vulnerable defense. Botev generates more chances (last 5 xG 1.99 vs 1.15 for Spartak) and records 3.71 shots on target versus 1.62 for the visitors, with conversion rates of 12% vs 8%, so the hosts are more likely to find the net. Spartak have conceded 45 goals this season versus 36 for Botev, but have only 24 goals scored themselves; therefore I ultimately favor No Goal (clean sheet expected) on the goalscorer line — 60% for “no” vs 40% for “yes.”

The xG model projects about 1.71 goals for Botev (home xG 1.25 and Spartak’s average xG conceded 2.16, mean 1.71) and 1.37 goals for Spartak (away xG 0.90 and Botev’s average xG conceded 1.83, mean 1.37), totaling 3.08 expected goals. Season metrics support a high scoring probability: Botev at home have 86% of matches over 1.5 and 71% over 2.5, while Spartak away show 69% over 1.5 but only 23% over 2.5. Additionally, Botev average 3.71 shots on target versus Spartak’s 1.62, and Spartak have conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), which elevates the hosts’ scoring chances. Based on the combined xG of 3.08 and the specific Over 1.5 percentages (86% vs 69%), the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated ~89% probability); Over 2.5 holds a moderate edge (approx. 66%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (approx. 36%).

In the last 5 matches Botev had a draw at half-time in 5 of 5 games (100%), and the average first-half goals is 0.36 for the hosts versus 0.15 for Spartak, which strongly favors a draw at half-time. The hosts have a higher xG of 1.25 versus 0.90 and more on-target shots per match (3.71 vs 1.62), while the visitors have been conceding an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches and show form 'lwlll', which suggests a Botev advantage after the break. In the second half Botev score an average of 0.86 goals, have scored 8 goals in minutes 76–90, and 93% of their matches feature at least one goal after the break, which increases the chance of a turnaround. Over the season the hosts led at the break in 21% of matches versus 15% for the visitors, so a lead at the break is less likely than a draw, but late in matches the hosts more often take points (in the last 5 matches Botev won 40% of games vs 20% for Spartak). Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).