Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna: match statistics

Botev Vratsa head into the match with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 games, while Spartak Varna have failed to win during that period, scoring just 2 goals. The hosts average only 0.5 goals per home game, but the visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home and allow opponents chances worth 1.66 xG. Spartak create slightly better chances on the road than Botev do at home—1.14 versus 0.91 xG—yet have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches, compared with 6 for the hosts. Home advantage and a clearly stronger recent run favour Botev, although their modest scoring record and 50% draw rate at home leave a significant possibility of the points being shared.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Spartak Varna’s attacking form: they have averaged just 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches and failed to score in 50% of the matches in the analyzed sample. Botev Vratsa have conceded an average of 1.2 goals over their last 5 matches, so an away goal is possible, but their recent scoring record counts against it. The hosts are more likely to score, as Spartak have conceded an average of 2.25 goals away from home, although Botev themselves have scored just 0.83 goals per home match. The share of matches in which both teams scored is 50% for Botev and 25% for Spartak, compared with 56% across the league. Therefore, the more likely outcome is that at least one team will fail to score; BTTS - No does not necessarily mean a 0-0 scoreline.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as this outcome occurred in 83% of Botev Vratsa’s matches and 50% of Spartak Varna’s fixtures. Botev average 0.83 goals per match, while Spartak have scored just 0.4 goals across their last 5 appearances, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. On the other hand, Spartak concede an average of 2.25 goals, giving the hosts an opportunity to exploit their opponents’ defensive weaknesses; the projection is 1.35 goals for Botev and 0.95 for Spartak. The combined projection of 2.30 goals remains below the selected line, although 75% of Spartak’s matches have finished with at least 3 goals, presenting the main risk to this pick.

A draw at both half-time and full-time is the most likely outcome: Botev Vratsa were level at the break in 4 of their 6 home matches, while Spartak Varna were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 games. The hosts kept a clean sheet at the break in 83% of their home matches, while the visitors scored an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time across their last five games. Botev’s 50% home draw rate and Spartak’s three draws in their last five matches also support the case for a draw. However, this is not a confident pick: the hosts have recently averaged 1.2 goals per game compared with 0.4 for the visitors, meaning a Botev win remains a realistic scenario.