Boulogne vs Dijon: match statistics

Both teams are unbeaten in matches in their respective roles, but Boulogne and Dijon have each recorded a 100% draw rate at home and away, respectively. Boulogne score just 0.5 goals per home match and fail to find the net in 50% of such fixtures, which limits their chances despite a solid defensive record of just 0.5 goals conceded on average. Dijon create more opportunities, averaging 15 shots compared with their opponents’ 11, while their xG stands at 1.78 versus Boulogne’s 1.39. However, Dijon concede an average of 1 goal away from home and are yet to keep a clean sheet. The visitors have also been slightly more effective across their last five matches, scoring 7 goals and averaging 1.2 points per game, while the hosts have scored just 2 goals and collected 0.8 points per match. Dijon’s advantage in chance creation is offset by Boulogne’s cautious, well-organised defensive approach, making another draw the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Boulogne’s poor current attacking output: in their last 5 matches, the team has scored just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, while only 40% of those matches saw both teams score. Dijon have looked stronger offensively, averaging 1.4 goals across their last 5 appearances, but Boulogne conceded just 0.6 goals per match during this period. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.49 xG, yet their zero average for goals scored in the season data, combined with 100% of matches featuring no goal scored, points to a significant finishing problem. Dijon have not kept a clean sheet, but their average xG against over the last five matches is only 1.08, so limiting the hosts remains a realistic scenario. With the league BTTS average at 46%, the more likely outcome is that at least one team—primarily Boulogne—will fail to score, meaning BTTS - No.

The strongest signal is Boulogne’s low scoring output: in their last 5 matches, the team scored only 2 goals, or 0.4 per game, while conceding just 3. Dijon offer greater attacking potential, averaging 1.4 goals across their last 5 appearances, but their matches produced an average of 2.4 goals, rather than results typical of a very open game. Boulogne did not have a single match with at least 3 goals during this period, while that outcome occurred in only 40% of Dijon’s recent matches. Although the teams’ average xG figures stand at 1.49 and 1.51, the hosts converted their chances very poorly, which lowers the realistic projection of their goal tally. With a projected total of 2.05 goals, the Under 3.5 line has a clear edge, as it requires 4 goals to be scored, while the form data more often points towards a tight result in the 1-3 goal range.

The strongest signal is a goalless and level first half: in the available seasonal data, both teams were level at half-time in 100% of their matches, scoring and conceding no goals before the break. This trend is supported by their recent form, as Boulogne were level at half-time in 80% of their last five matches and Dijon in 75%, averaging just 0.20 and 0.25 goals before the break, respectively. After half-time, Dijon look slightly stronger, scoring an average of 1.0 goals in their last five matches compared with Boulogne’s 0.4, although both teams frequently finish matches level: in 60% and 80% of their respective recent outings. The hosts are poor in front of goal, as despite an xG of 1.98 and an average of 9 shots on target, they failed to score, limiting the chances of a turnaround. The X/X scenario is therefore the most likely, although Dijon’s post-break advantage also increases the probability of the X/2 outcome.