Bradford City vs Stevenage: match statistics

Bradford City sit 2nd in the table and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 3 of them. At home, the hosts concede an average of just 0.5 goals and have kept a clean sheet in 75% of matches, while Stevenage have failed to score in 50% of their away games. Bradford also create better chances on home turf, with an average xG of 1.69 compared with Stevenage’s 1.20 away from home. The visitors remain dangerous, however: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and average 1.5 goals away from home, compared with Bradford’s 1.0 at home. The hosts’ edge in chance quality and defensive strength points towards a home win, although Stevenage’s attacking threat and two draws in four away matches leave a considerable possibility of the points being shared.

Bradford average 1.5 goals at home and have scored in every home match so far, so the greater uncertainty lies with Stevenage’s finishing. The visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away matches, while Bradford have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals across their last five games. Stevenage do average 1.5 goals away from home and 2.2 goals over their last five matches, so an away goal cannot be ruled out. Although both teams scored in 75% of Bradford’s home matches, compared with 50% of Stevenage’s away games, the risk of the visitors drawing another blank gives BTTS - No a slight edge.

Both teams average 1.5 goals per game this season, but Stevenage concede only 0.75 goals per match, limiting Bradford’s scoring potential. Average xG stands at 1.38 for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors, pointing to a moderate number of chances rather than a high-scoring game. No more than 3 goals were scored in 75% of each team’s matches, despite Stevenage averaging 2.2 goals across their last 5 fixtures. Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick: the 2.5-goal forecast favours this line, while the data around the 2.5-goal threshold are less conclusive—it was exceeded in 75% of Bradford’s matches, but in only 25% of Stevenage’s.

Bradford were level at half-time in 3 of the 4 matches analysed, while Stevenage were level in all 4, making a draw at the break the strongest signal. Both teams scored an average of just 0.25 goals before half-time in these matches, further pointing to a low-key start. After the break, Bradford scored an average of 1.25 goals and won more often overall than Stevenage: in 50% of matches compared with 25%. The hosts also hold a slight xG advantage, 1.38 to 1.20, which supports backing them to win after an earlier draw. However, the X/1 pick remains uncertain, as Stevenage have won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of just 0.5 goals after half-time.