Bragantino vs Vitória: match statistics
Bragantino vs Vitória: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bragantino played Vitória in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Bragantino: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Vitória: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bragantino scores 1.13 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Vitória scores 1.29 and concedes 1.43. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bragantino 47%, Vitória 50%. Over 2.5: Bragantino 40%, Vitória 43%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Bragantino has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.19. Bragantino: 15.5 shots per match, Vitória: 10.7.
Match halves
Bragantino: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.47. Vitória: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Bragantino: 31-45+ (6 goals). Vitória: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Bragantino has a clear advantage in home metrics: they average 1.57 goals per home match with xG 1.66, record 4.86 on-target shots and 15.71 total shots, while Vitória away averages 0.86 goals with xG 0.98 and only 3.14 on-target shots and 8.43 total shots. Defensively the hosts’ edge is evident — Bragantino concedes 1.14 goals per home match and keeps a clean sheet in 29% of home games, whereas Vitória concedes 2.43 goals away and has no clean sheets (0%). In overall form Vitória looks better (last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, 11 goals scored, 2.2 points per match), but their away record is poor (0% away wins, 57% losses), while Bragantino’s last 5 show 2 wins, 3 losses, 9 goals scored and 1.2 points per match. The xG gap (1.66 vs 0.98) and the difference in home goal differential (+3 for Bragantino vs -11 for Vitória away) indicate the hosts create and convert higher-quality chances. Therefore I forecast a home win; estimated probabilities: 60% Bragantino, 25% draw, 15% Vitória.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Bragantino averages 1.71 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded per match this season, with 71% of games ending in a clean sheet, indicating a strong home defense. Vitória averages 0.86 goals per game with xG 0.98 and concedes 2.43 goals per match, although in the last 5 matches their goals scored average rose to 2.2 (BTTS in last 5 = 60%). Hosts create more chances: 13.0 shots and 4.86 on target with xG 1.41 versus Vitória’s 8.43 shots, 3.14 on target and xG 0.98, increasing the probability that Bragantino will be the team creating chances and scoring. Season-long BTTS rate is only 29% for Bragantino versus 71% for Vitória, but Bragantino’s advantage in clean sheets (71%) and Vitória’s lower scoring output (0.86 goals) provide a stronger signal toward No Goal. Consequently, I tip BTTS = "No" as the more probable outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects 1.63 xG for Bragantino and 1.06 xG for Vitória, totaling approximately 2.69 goals. Bragantino concedes just 0.43 goals at home on average and has 71% clean-sheet matches, while averaging 13.0 shots and 4.86 on target with a 13% conversion rate. Vitória concedes 2.43 goals per match and has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season; season Over1.5 rates are 71% (Bragantino) vs 100% (Vitória) — average ~85.5%, so I give strong support for Over 1.5 (86%). The 2.5 line shows mixed signals: season rates 29% vs 57% (average 43%) but the last 5 matches for both teams show 60% Over2.5 and cumulative xG>2.5, hence a moderate lean to Over 2.5 (54%). Over 3.5 (season average ~29%) looks unlikely given the total xG of 2.69.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Bragantino is the clear favorite: seasonal averages are 1.71 goals scored and 0.43 conceded versus Vitória’s 0.86 scored and 2.43 conceded, and the home side have won 71% of matches compared to 0% for the visitors. At half-time Bragantino led in 4 matches (57%) and average 0.71 HT goals scored and 0.43 conceded, while Vitória led at the break in 0% and average 0.29 scored and 1.43 conceded before half-time — this favors the home side to hold the lead at the break. The xG advantage (1.41 vs 0.98), shots (13.0 vs 8.43) and shots on target (4.86 vs 3.14) support a scenario of Bragantino controlling the match and maintaining their lead. After the break the hosts average 1.0 goals and concede 0.0, and a 71% seasonal clean sheet rate facilitates preserving the result, therefore the most likely and strongest signal is 1/1. However, Vitória are involved in matches with both teams scoring in 71% of games, so I leave a small chance for an equalizer or a turnaround (hence a probability distribution that includes minor chances for X/1 and X/X).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bragantino | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vitória is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Bragantino · 1.6 pts / match - Vitória
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vitória is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.13 goals / match - Bragantino · 1.29 goals / match - Vitória
Bragantino is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Bragantino · 1.43 goals / match - Vitória
Bragantino scores in 73% of matches (11 of 15 matches), while Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 36% (5 of 14 matches).
Vitória scores in 79% of matches (11 of 14 matches), while Bragantino keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bragantino
Over / Under - Vitória
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bragantino is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Bragantino · 1.21 pts / match - Vitória
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bragantino - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Vitória - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bragantino
Vitória
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Bragantino | Liga | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.33 | 2.66 | • 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 59% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 50% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 23% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Bragantino 1 - 0 - 1 Vitória. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bragantino vs Vitória?
The Serie A match finished Bragantino 2:0 Vitória. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Bragantino and Vitória?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Bragantino won 1, Vitória won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Bragantino vs Vitória?
Bragantino score 1.13 goals per game on average and Vitória 1.29. The Serie A average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Bragantino's matches and 50% of Vitória's.
What form are Bragantino and Vitória in?
Over the last 5 games Bragantino have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Vitória 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bragantino vs Vitória?
The statistical background for Bragantino vs Vitória — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.