Braintree Town vs Carlisle United: match statistics
Carlisle United currently hold 3rd place in the table with an impressive record of 25 wins this season, while Braintree Town sits in 22nd position with only 8 victories. The visitors demonstrate a clear advantage in away matches with a 60% win rate and an average of 1.45 goals per game. This contrasts sharply with the hosts, who win only 25% of their home fixtures and score an average of 0.85 goals. The form of both teams over the last 5 matches confirms this trend – Carlisle earns 2 points per game with a record of 3 wins, while Braintree averages just 0.4 points per game without a single win. Furthermore, the hosts have a negative goal difference at home (-5) and a 45% loss rate, which, combined with Carlisle's efficiency (12% shot conversion rate), gives the visitors a distinct advantage. All key statistical indicators, including xG, possession, and offensive effectiveness, point towards a Carlisle United victory.
Braintree Town vs Carlisle United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Braintree Town played Carlisle United in National League (England). The match was played on 28 March 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Braintree Town: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Carlisle United: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Braintree Town scores 0.80 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. Carlisle United scores 1.90 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Braintree Town 43%, Carlisle United 53%. Over 2.5: Braintree Town 43%, Carlisle United 60%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
Carlisle United has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.48. Braintree Town: 11.8 shots per match, Carlisle United: 13.9.
Match halves
Braintree Town: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.53. Carlisle United: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.02.
Goals by minute
Braintree Town: 76-90+ (10 goals). Carlisle United: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Carlisle United currently hold 3rd place in the table with an impressive record of 25 wins this season, while Braintree Town sits in 22nd position with only 8 victories. The visitors demonstrate a clear advantage in away matches with a 60% win rate and an average of 1.45 goals per game. This contrasts sharply with the hosts, who win only 25% of their home fixtures and score an average of 0.85 goals. The form of both teams over the last 5 matches confirms this trend – Carlisle earns 2 points per game with a record of 3 wins, while Braintree averages just 0.4 points per game without a single win. Furthermore, the hosts have a negative goal difference at home (-5) and a 45% loss rate, which, combined with Carlisle's efficiency (12% shot conversion rate), gives the visitors a distinct advantage. All key statistical indicators, including xG, possession, and offensive effectiveness, point towards a Carlisle United victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal data favors BTTS: Braintree has a high home scoring average (2.35) while also conceding a solid number (1.2), and Carlisle averages 1.45 goals away. Both teams have only 35% clean sheets, meaning in approximately 65% of matches they concede at least one goal. The BTTS rates are positive (Braintree 55%, Carlisle 50%) and are supported by a very high trend from the last 5 matches (80% and 60%). Braintree's attack looks reliable also in qualitative data (xG for 2.04, 7.1 shots on target), while Carlisle's defense allows relatively many chances (xG against 1.63). Carlisle is in good scoring form in the last 5 matches (2.4 goals/match), while Braintree concedes a lot (2.0 goals/match), which further increases the chances of an away goal. With a league average goals of 2.95 and a league BTTS rate of 57%, the most likely pick is BTTS: Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based goal model indicates approximately 3.22 goals in the match (Braintree 1.66, Carlisle 1.56), which is above the league average of 2.95. This is supported by high Over 1.5 season rates: 95% for the home side and 75% for the visitors, alongside a 100% Over 0.5 record for both teams. Chance creation is solid (Braintree 16.0 shots and 7.1 on target, Carlisle 11.8 and 4.7), and the conversion rate of 15% vs 12% favors goals. Recent matches increase the goal risk due to Braintree's defensive issues (last 5: 2.0 conceded/match and xG against 2.05) and high BTTS rates in the last 5 (Braintree 80%, Carlisle 60%). The strongest signal is the 1.5 line, where the combination of seasonal data and xG provides the highest, most stable probability of hitting.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is the current form: Braintree Town has only 0.4 PPG in their last 5 matches, a 0% win rate, and an average of 2.0 goals conceded, while Carlisle United has 2.0 PPG, a 60% win rate, and 2.4 goals scored. In the first half, Braintree very often draws in their recent 5 games (80% draws at the break), which increases the probability of an "X" (Draw) result at HT. Simultaneously, Carlisle's second-half superiority is supported by data from their last 5 matches: higher goal scoring in the 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.6) and a better post-break goal difference (gd_2hg 3 vs 0). Braintree's seasonal attacking metrics are high (2.35 goals/match; 2.04 xG), but their current drop in efficiency (1.0 goal scored in last5) reduces the chances of holding a lead. Therefore, the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a Carlisle United victory in the second half, aligning with the X/2 (Draw/Carlisle) HT/FT market.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Braintree Town | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carlisle United is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Braintree Town · 2 pts / match - Carlisle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carlisle United is 137% better for: goals scored per match.
0.8 goals / match - Braintree Town · 1.9 goals / match - Carlisle United
Carlisle United is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.53 goals / match - Braintree Town · 1.2 goals / match - Carlisle United
Braintree Town scores in 55% of matches (22 of 40 matches), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 35% (14 of 40 matches).
Carlisle United scores in 88% of matches (35 of 40 matches), while Braintree Town keeps a clean sheet in 28% (11 of 40 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Braintree Town
Over / Under - Carlisle United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Carlisle United is 66% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.95 pts / match - Braintree Town · 1.58 pts / match - Carlisle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Braintree Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Braintree Town
Carlisle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Braintree Town | Liga | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.33 | 2.95 | ▲ 3.10 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 58% | ▼ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 23% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 81% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Braintree Town 0 - 0 - 1 Carlisle United. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Braintree Town vs Carlisle United?
The National League match finished Braintree Town 1:2 Carlisle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Braintree Town vs Carlisle United?
Braintree Town score 0.80 goals per game on average and Carlisle United 1.90. The National League average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Braintree Town's matches and 53% of Carlisle United's.
What form are Braintree Town and Carlisle United in?
Over the last 5 games Braintree Town have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Carlisle United 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Braintree Town vs Carlisle United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.