Brann vs HamKam: match statistics

Brann are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 12 goals in the process, while HamKam have recorded just 1 victory, scored 5 goals and lost 3 times. At home, the hosts create more chances, averaging 14.38 shots and 5 on target per match, compared with HamKam’s 11.13 shots and 3.88 on target away from home. Brann’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances, with their average home xG standing at 1.82, while HamKam’s away xG is only 1.32. HamKam have won just 13% of their away matches and fail to score in 25% of them, although Brann’s defence remains vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.63 goals at home. The hosts should control the match more often thanks to an average possession of 65% and greater attacking strength, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Both teams record BTTS at 63%, above the league average of 55%, indicating a favorable profile for goals at both ends. Brann average 1.75 goals, while HamKam concede as many as 1.88 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of their games. HamKam score an average of 1.25 goals, while Brann’s defense allows opponents an xG of 1.72 and concedes an average of 1.50 goals. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of games and conceded 1.8 goals per match, although HamKam’s weaker BTTS trend at 40% reduces confidence in the pick. Nevertheless, the high scoring indicators and the visitors’ defensive inefficiency favor a scenario in which both sides find the net.

The profile of this fixture clearly points to at least two goals: matches involving both teams have gone over the 1.5-goal line in 88% of cases. Brann score an average of 1.75 goals per match, while HamKam concede as many as 1.88, with the hosts having scored 12 goals in their last five appearances, or 2.4 per game. Both defences are currently vulnerable, as each team has conceded 9 goals in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 per game. The chance-creation potential also supports goals: Brann’s average xG over their last five matches stands at 1.69, while HamKam allow opponents 1.77 xG. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest selection, combining very high historical consistency with the hosts’ attacking form and the visitors’ defensive weakness.

Brann held the lead at the break in 50% of matches, while HamKam were trailing at half-time in as many as 63% of their games, clearly strengthening the scenario of a home lead. Before the break, Brann score an average of 0.75 goals and concede 0.63, whereas HamKam score just 0.25 goals and concede 1.13. Recent form also favours the hosts: in their last five matches, they led at half-time in 60% of cases, while the visitors were behind at the break in 80%. After the interval, Brann score an average of 1.0 goal, while HamKam concede 0.75, and the hosts’ superiority over the entire season is reflected in their 63% win rate compared with just 13% for their opponents. Therefore, the 1/1 outcome remains the most likely, although Brann’s average of 1.5 goals conceded per match leaves some risk of a late turnaround.