Brest vs Olympique Marseille: match statistics
Olympique Marseille appears to be the favorite in this match despite the recent poor form of both teams. The visitors have a significant advantage in possession (56% vs 45%) and a higher shot conversion rate (12% vs 10%). Marseille boasts better xG statistics (1.59 vs 1.53 for Brest), suggesting they create better goal-scoring opportunities. Brest has a solid home record (45% win rate in home matches), but Marseille also wins 45% of their away matches, which, combined with their superior offensive quality (48 goals this season vs 29), gives them an edge. The recent form of both teams is inconsistent (averaging 1 point per game in their last 5 matches), which opens up the possibility of a draw. Taking all factors into account, I predict an away win, although the match could be closely contested, as evidenced by the identical goal difference (+3) of both teams in their respective matches.
Brest vs Olympique Marseille: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Brest played Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 20 February 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Brest: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Olympique Marseille: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Brest scores 1.32 and concedes 1.55 goals per match. Olympique Marseille scores 2.18 and concedes 1.32. League average: 2.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Brest 50%, Olympique Marseille 50%. Over 2.5: Brest 55%, Olympique Marseille 68%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Olympique Marseille has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.31. Brest: 11.8 shots per match, Olympique Marseille: 14.1.
Match halves
Brest: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.68. Olympique Marseille: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.23.
Goals by minute
Brest: 76-90+ (7 goals). Olympique Marseille: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.82 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Olympique Marseille appears to be the favorite in this match despite the recent poor form of both teams. The visitors have a significant advantage in possession (56% vs 45%) and a higher shot conversion rate (12% vs 10%). Marseille boasts better xG statistics (1.59 vs 1.53 for Brest), suggesting they create better goal-scoring opportunities. Brest has a solid home record (45% win rate in home matches), but Marseille also wins 45% of their away matches, which, combined with their superior offensive quality (48 goals this season vs 29), gives them an edge. The recent form of both teams is inconsistent (averaging 1 point per game in their last 5 matches), which opens up the possibility of a draw. Taking all factors into account, I predict an away win, although the match could be closely contested, as evidenced by the identical goal difference (+3) of both teams in their respective matches.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Brest | Olympique Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Olympique Marseille is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Brest · 1.6 pts / match - Olympique Marseille
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Olympique Marseille is 65% better for: goals scored per match.
1.32 goals / match - Brest · 2.18 goals / match - Olympique Marseille
Olympique Marseille is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.55 goals / match - Brest · 1.32 goals / match - Olympique Marseille
Brest scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Olympique Marseille keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 matches).
Olympique Marseille scores in 77% of matches (17 of 22 matches), while Brest keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Brest
Over / Under - Olympique Marseille
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Olympique Marseille is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Brest · 1.68 pts / match - Olympique Marseille
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Brest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Olympique Marseille - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 55%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Brest
Olympique Marseille
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Brest | Liga | Olympique Marseille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.86 | 2.82 | ▲ 3.50 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 52% | ▲ 68% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 27% | 29% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 70% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 79% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Brest 0 - 0 - 1 Olympique Marseille. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Brest vs Olympique Marseille?
The Ligue 1 match finished Brest 2:0 Olympique Marseille. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Brest vs Olympique Marseille?
Brest score 1.32 goals per game on average and Olympique Marseille 2.18. The Ligue 1 average is 2.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Brest's matches and 50% of Olympique Marseille's.
What form are Brest and Olympique Marseille in?
Over the last 5 games Brest have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Olympique Marseille 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Brest vs Olympique Marseille?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.