Brest vs Rennes: match statistics
Brest vs Rennes: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Brest played Rennes in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 3:4.
Current form
Brest: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Rennes: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Brest scores 1.26 and concedes 1.44 goals per match. Rennes scores 1.59 and concedes 1.37. League average: 2.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Brest 41%, Rennes 52%. Over 2.5: Brest 48%, Rennes 63%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Rennes has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.26. Brest: 11.5 shots per match, Rennes: 13.4.
Match halves
Brest: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.63. Rennes: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.85.
Goals by minute
Brest: 76-90+ (7 goals). Rennes: 16-30 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.79 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (Brest). At home Brest average 1.54 goals scored and concede only 1.00 per match; they have a positive home goal difference (+7) and a 54% clean sheet rate. Rennes away average 1.46 goals with a higher conversion rate of 14%, but concede as many as 1.77 goals per match and have a negative away goal difference (-4), which weakens their chances on the road. Brest create more chances (13.92 shots and 4.54 on target per home match) with an average xG of 1.47 versus Rennes’ away xG of 1.22, indicating better quality and volume of chances for the hosts. Although Rennes have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus Brest’s 5 and collect on average 2.0 points in the last 5 (Brest 1.8), Brest’s defensive stability at home (1.00 goals conceded on average) gives them the edge and leans me toward a bet on the home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Brest at home averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, with a home BTTS rate of 64%, while Rennes away averages 1.46 scored and 1.77 conceded with a season BTTS of 38%. Brest generates xG 1.84 at home versus Rennes away xG against 1.57 and records 5.43 shots on target vs Rennes 3.85, indicating a chance-creation edge for the hosts. Rennes have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches (avg. 1.8) and conceded only 2 (avg. 0.4), with recent xG_for 1.66 and xG_against 1.06, so their defensive form has improved; simultaneously Brest have 0% BTTS in their last 5, which lowers confidence in both-teams-to-score. Overall, weighing Brest’s seasonal 64% signal and Rennes’ recent defensive efficiency, I assess BTTS - Yes at 60% vs No at 40%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on average xG yields expected goals of 1.70 for Brest (xG 1.84) and 1.28 for Rennes (xG 1.22), total 2.98. A Poisson estimate for λ=2.98 suggests probability of >=2 goals around 80%, >=3 goals around 57% and >=4 goals around 35%. Seasonal stats support this: Brest at home has 71% of matches over 1.5 and 57% over 2.5, while Rennes away has 85% over 1.5 and 69% over 2.5, which increases the chances of an over, particularly on 1.5. Additionally, Brest averages 16.21 shots (5.43 on target) versus Rennes 10.46 (3.85 on target), and Rennes concedes on average 1.77 goals away, favoring more goal-scoring situations. Due to the consistency of signals (total xG ~2.98 and high seasonal over1.5: 71%/85%) I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, taking into account the risk from Brest’s last 5 matches (recent xG for Brest = 1.03).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Rennes led at the break in 46% of their away matches, while Brest led at the break in 36% of their home games, and average first-half goals are 0.92 for Rennes versus 0.57 for Brest, suggesting greater away activity from Rennes before the interval. However, over the full 90 minutes Brest posts superior metrics: home xG is 1.84 versus 1.22 for Rennes, and the season’s average home goals are 1.71 for Brest against 1.46 scored by Rennes away. Second-half statistics are key: Brest scores on average 1.14 goals after the break, while Rennes concedes an average of 1.31 goals; the hosts accumulated 27 points in second halves (an average of 1.93 pts), whereas Rennes only 12 points (an average of 0.92 pts). Taking this into account, the most likely scenario is Rennes leading at half-time with a turnaround by Brest by full-time (HT/FT = 2/1). A reasonable alternative is a draw at half-time and a Brest win after 90 minutes (X/1), but the second-half data more strongly support a home victory after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Brest | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rennes is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Brest · 2 pts / match - Rennes
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rennes is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - Brest · 1.59 goals / match - Rennes
Rennes is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.44 goals / match - Brest · 1.37 goals / match - Rennes
Brest scores in 67% of matches (18 of 27 matches), while Rennes keeps a clean sheet in 33% (9 of 27 matches).
Rennes scores in 78% of matches (21 of 27 matches), while Brest keeps a clean sheet in 33% (9 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Brest
Over / Under - Rennes
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rennes is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - Brest · 1.56 pts / match - Rennes
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Brest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Rennes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Brest
Rennes
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Brest | Liga | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.70 | 2.79 | ▲ 2.96 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 48% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 48% | 51% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 30% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 70% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 77% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Brest 0 - 0 - 1 Rennes. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Brest vs Rennes?
The Ligue 1 match finished Brest 3:4 Rennes. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Brest vs Rennes?
Brest score 1.26 goals per game on average and Rennes 1.59. The Ligue 1 average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Brest's matches and 52% of Rennes's.
What form are Brest and Rennes in?
Over the last 5 games Brest have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Rennes 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Brest vs Rennes?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Brest vs Rennes: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.