Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest: match statistics
Brighton & Hove Albion hold a clear advantage as the home side, boasting a 38% win rate in home matches with just a 15% loss rate. Their offensive efficiency at home (averaging 1.54 goals per game) and their xG advantage (1.6 vs 1.26) indicate solid goal-scoring form. Nottingham Forest records poor away results with a 54% loss rate and only a 31% win rate, scoring on average just 0.92 goals per away game. The goal difference is significant: Brighton are +6 at home, while Forest are -8 away. Possession (54% vs 47%) and a higher number of shots on target (4.62 vs 3.92) further support the hosts. The poor form of both teams in their last five matches (0.8 points per game each) could lead to a more cautious approach, hence a significant probability of a draw, but Brighton should be able to capitalize on their home advantage.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Brighton & Hove Albion played Nottingham Forest in Premier League (England). The match was played on 1 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Brighton & Hove Albion: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Nottingham Forest: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Brighton & Hove Albion scores 1.33 and concedes 1.26 goals per match. Nottingham Forest scores 0.93 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Brighton & Hove Albion 63%, Nottingham Forest 37%. Over 2.5: Brighton & Hove Albion 44%, Nottingham Forest 48%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Nottingham Forest has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.49. Brighton & Hove Albion: 12.8 shots per match, Nottingham Forest: 13.0.
Match halves
Brighton & Hove Albion: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.89. Nottingham Forest: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.59.
Goals by minute
Brighton & Hove Albion: 76-90+ (12 goals). Nottingham Forest: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.78 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Brighton & Hove Albion hold a clear advantage as the home side, boasting a 38% win rate in home matches with just a 15% loss rate. Their offensive efficiency at home (averaging 1.54 goals per game) and their xG advantage (1.6 vs 1.26) indicate solid goal-scoring form. Nottingham Forest records poor away results with a 54% loss rate and only a 31% win rate, scoring on average just 0.92 goals per away game. The goal difference is significant: Brighton are +6 at home, while Forest are -8 away. Possession (54% vs 47%) and a higher number of shots on target (4.62 vs 3.92) further support the hosts. The poor form of both teams in their last five matches (0.8 points per game each) could lead to a more cautious approach, hence a significant probability of a draw, but Brighton should be able to capitalize on their home advantage.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nottingham Forest is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Brighton & Hove Albion · 1 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Brighton & Hove Albion is 43% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.93 goals / match - Nottingham Forest
Brighton & Hove Albion is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.26 goals / match - Brighton & Hove Albion · 1.44 goals / match - Nottingham Forest
Brighton & Hove Albion scores in 78% of matches (21 of 27 matches), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 22% (6 of 27 matches).
Nottingham Forest scores in 52% of matches (14 of 27 matches), while Brighton & Hove Albion keeps a clean sheet in 22% (6 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Brighton & Hove Albion
Over / Under - Nottingham Forest
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Brighton & Hove Albion is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.07 pts / match - Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.85 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Brighton & Hove Albion - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Brighton & Hove Albion
Nottingham Forest
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liga | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.59 | 2.78 | ▼ 2.37 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 56% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 53% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 25% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 71% | • 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 80% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Brighton & Hove Albion 1 - 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest?
The Premier League match finished Brighton & Hove Albion 2:1 Nottingham Forest. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest?
Brighton & Hove Albion score 1.33 goals per game on average and Nottingham Forest 0.93. The Premier League average is 2.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Brighton & Hove Albion's matches and 37% of Nottingham Forest's.
What form are Brighton & Hove Albion and Nottingham Forest in?
Over the last 5 games Brighton & Hove Albion have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Nottingham Forest 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.