Broń Radom vs Jagiellonia II: match statistics

The favorite in this match appears to be Jagiellonia II; the visitors have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game) and averaged 2.4 points per match, whereas Broń Radom scored only 5 goals in those five games (1.0 per match) and averaged 0.6 points per match. The home defence is exposed — Broń conceded 12 goals in the last 5 fixtures (2.4 per game) and 46 overall this season, while Jagiellonia II conceded 2 goals in the last 5 and 32 in the season. Statistically Broń generates more chances at their stadium (avg. 15.2 shots and 5.4 on target with xG 1.73 and 1.5 goals per game), but they have a lower conversion rate of 9% versus the visitors’ 13%, which reduces the effectiveness of those advantages. Jagiellonia II also shows better defensive metrics away (1.0 goals conceded per game and 38% clean sheets) and superior form (4 wins in the last 5). Considering the last 5 rounds balance (+11–2 in favor of the visitors) and the significant points gap over that period, I assess the chances as: visitors win ~60%, draw 20%, home win 20%.

I back BTTS - Yes (70%): Broń Radom has a season BTTS of 62% and has conceded an average of 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches (12 conceded in 5), while Jagiellonia II scored 11 goals in their last 5 fixtures (avg 2.2). League BTTS stands at 63%, and the home side creates on average 16 shots and 7 shots on target with xG_for 1.59, indicating a high volume of scoring opportunities. Visitors average 1.15 goals for the season, but their last 5 matches show 2.2 goals and xG_for 1.4 with shot conversion of 13% (vs Broń’s 9%), increasing the likelihood they will convert chances. The counterpoint is Jagiellonia II’s season clean sheet rate of 38% and only 2 goals conceded in the last 5 (0.4 avg), demonstrating an ability to keep a clean sheet. Still, Broń’s weak defense this season (46 goals conceded, 1.46 avg) and 12 conceded in the last 5 tilt the balance, so the stronger signal supports Both Teams To Score (70%).

I expect around 2.77 total goals — Broń Radom 1.37 and Jagiellonia II 1.40 — calculated from averaging xG (1.59 vs 1.40) and seasonal goals per game (1.62 vs 1.15). Both teams have 69% of matches with over 1.5 goals this season, while the league average is 3.38 goals per game, which strongly supports at least two goals. Broń averages 16 shots (7 on target), Jagiellonia II 9.82 shots (4.55 on target), with the visitors having a higher conversion rate 13% vs 9%; additionally Broń conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), and Jagiellonia II scored 11 (2.2 per game). Seasonal over 2.5 rates are mixed (Broń 54% vs Jagiellonia II 23%), but the combined xG (~2.92) and current scoring form give a moderate chance for Over 2.5 (~62%), while Over 3.5 looks less likely (~33%). The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at the 1.5 line) due to the 69% occurrence for both teams and the expected 2.77 goals.

Considering seasonal data and the last five matches, the most likely HT/FT scenario is 2/2 (Jagiellonia II leading at the break and winning) with an estimated probability of 37%. Seasonally Broń Radom has led at the break more often (leadingAtHTPercentage_home 38% vs leadingAtHTPercentage_away 23%), but in the last five matches Jagiellonia II holds the halftime edge (last5_leadingAtHTPercentage_overall_home 0% vs last5_leadingAtHTPercentage_overall_away 40%), which shifts the expectation for the lead at the break toward the away side (~48%). The second half also favors Jagiellonia II: the away side scores an average of 0.69 goals after the break (scored_2hg_avg_away 0.69) and has 2.6 points per game in second halves over the last five matches, while Broń concedes an average of 0.92 goals after halftime (conceded_2hg_avg_home 0.92) and has 1.4 points per game. However the hosts are active before the break (shotsAVG_home 16 and shotsOnTargetAVG_home 7 vs 9.82 and 4.55 for the away side, and scoredAVGHT_home 0.85 vs scoredAVGHT_away 0.46), so scenarios where Broń leads or is winning at halftime (1/1 and X/1) together received 18%. Given the away side’s second-half advantage and form (last5_winPercentage_overall_away 80% vs home 20%), I select 2/2 as the strongest signal.