Broń Radom vs Legia Warszawa II: match statistics

Legia Warszawa II are clear favorites: they have 25 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses and 77 goals scored this season (avg. 2.2 goals away), while Broń Radom have 8 wins, 9 draws, 14 losses and 35 goals (avg. 1.33 goals at home). In their last five matches Broń have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, averaging only 0.4 points per game, whereas Legia have 4 wins, 1 loss and 2.4 points per game. Broń create more chances at home (avg. 14.31 shots, 5.15 on target and xG 1.65) but have a low conversion rate of 9%, while Legia, despite fewer average shots away (11.36 and 4.18 on target; xG 1.43), convert at 18% efficiency and score 2.2 goals on average away. Defensively the difference in goals conceded is marginal (Broń 1.27 at home vs Legia 1.2 away), but the visitors have more clean sheets (40% vs 20%) and a much lower share of matches without scoring (7% vs 20%). Considering the advantage in number of wins (25 vs 8), superior shot conversion (18% vs 9%) and clearly better last-5 form (2.4 vs 0.4 pts), I predict an away win.

Both teams present a real scoring potential: Broń Radom averages 2.75 goals at home, while Legia II records 2.2 goals away; their xG are 1.76 and 1.43 respectively, confirming both sides create chances. Comparing offense vs defense shows Legia posts 1.43 xG against Broń’s defense at 1.06 (a 0.37 xG edge), and Broń has 1.76 xG against Legia’s defense at 1.34 (a 0.42 xG edge), so both teams have arguments to score. There are countervailing factors: Broń keeps 63% clean sheets at home and a season BTTS of only 38%, whereas Legia has a season BTTS of 53% and the league overall features 62% of matches with both teams scoring. Looking at the last 5 matches, Broń concedes on average 1.4 goals and has 60% BTTS in those games, while Legia in the last 5 scores 1.4 and concedes 0.6, which suggests at least one goal from each side is likely. Summing these data — strong xG for both teams, high season averages 2.75 vs 2.2 and the league trend of 62% — I assess BTTS at 68% vs 32% and recommend the pick: BTTS - Yes.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5: Broń at home has 88% of matches with more than 1.5 goals, and Legia II away 87%, averaging 87.5%. xG analysis indicates about 1.55 goals for the home side (home xG 1.76 and xG against opponents 1.34, average 1.55) and 1.25 for the visitors (away xG 1.43 and xG against home 1.06, average 1.25), total xG = 2.80. Additionally, the league averages 3.34 goals per match, with 66% of games over 2.5; Legia has 73% of season matches >2.5, which increases the probability of at least two goals. Counterarguments are Broń’s high clean sheet rate (63%) and the hosts’ weaker form in the last 5 matches (average 0.8 goals, form 'llldd'), so I avoid an aggressive Over 3.5. Shot statistics confirm an offensive profile: Broń averages 13.38 shots and 5.56 on target with a 21% conversion, Legia 11.36 and 4.18 with an 18% conversion.

Broń Radom have very strong home statistics this season: they average 2.75 goals scored and concede only 0.44 per match, and they lead at the break in 63% of games, which increases the likelihood of an HT lead. In the first half the hosts record on average 1.06 goals scored and only 0.19 conceded, while Legia II have 0.71 scored and 0.57 conceded at half-time — these figures give Broń a clear advantage before the break. The hosts’ xG is 1.76 versus the visitors’ 1.43, with average shots on target 5.56 vs 4.18 and a higher conversion rate 21% vs 18%, all supporting the home side as favourites to maintain their lead and close out the match. Form should be considered: Broń’s last five results read 'llldd' with a 0% win rate, whereas Legia II are 'wwlww' with an 80% win rate in that period, which increases their chances of a second-half turnaround. Taking into account Broń’s 63% rate of leading at the break, superior first-half goal rates 1.06 vs 0.71 and xG 1.76 vs 1.43, the most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/1 (37%), while allowing for X/1 (14%), X/X (9%) and 2/2 (15%) as alternative outcomes.