Brooklyn FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: match statistics

Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit in 10th place, while Brooklyn FC are only 24th, and across the season the visitors have won 9 matches compared with just 3 wins for the hosts. Brooklyn have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 11, whereas Pittsburgh have recorded 2 wins over the same period, with their defense allowing only 3 goals. At home, the hosts average 0.75 goals and fail to score in 50% of their matches, which could be an issue against a visiting side that keeps a clean sheet in 33% of away games. Pittsburgh average 1.00 goals away from home but have a significantly better shot conversion rate, 13% compared with Brooklyn’s 6%. However, the visitors’ advantage is not overwhelming, as their away xG stands at just 1.05, while Brooklyn create chances worth 1.52 xG at home, making a draw a realistic alternative.

The seasonal share of matches in which both teams scored is just 36% for Brooklyn FC and 44% for Pittsburgh Riverhounds, clearly below the league average of 53%. Pittsburgh have conceded only 0.6 goals per game over their last five matches, kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches this season, while Brooklyn have scored just 4 goals during this period, averaging 0.8 per game. The visitors have also averaged 0.8 goals per game recently, while Brooklyn have recorded clean sheets in 27% of their matches, limiting confidence in Pittsburgh to score. The hosts have created slightly more, with an xG of 1.41 over their last five matches compared with their opponents’ 1.05, but their poor finishing and the visitors’ solid defence support a scenario in which at least one side fails to score. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is not more likely than BTTS - No.

The season profiles of both teams point to a moderate number of goals: Brooklyn average 1.27 goals, while Pittsburgh average 1.00. The 3.5 line was not exceeded in 73% of Brooklyn’s matches and as many as 89% of Pittsburgh’s games, while only 27% and 11% of their matches respectively ended with at least four goals. The average xG figures support a result in the region of 2 goals, standing at 1.30 for the home side and 1.05 for the visitors, with 1.33 and 1.20 xG conceded by their opponents. Pittsburgh have also conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches, limiting the outlook for a high-scoring home performance despite Brooklyn’s 11 goals conceded during this period. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the season data and attacking potential of both sides clearly favor a scenario with a maximum of three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Brooklyn were level at the break in 64% of their matches and conceded just 0.18 goals per game in the first half. Pittsburgh have better recent form, averaging 1.4 points per game over their last five fixtures compared with Brooklyn’s 0.4, but their attack has scored only 0.8 goals per match during that period. The visitors are also highly stable defensively, conceding an average of 0.6 goals in their last five matches and just 0.2 after the break, which limits the hosts’ chances of a turnaround. Brooklyn have a slightly higher season xG, 1.30 compared with 1.05, but have scored only 0.8 goals across their last five outings and have not recorded a single win. The low conversion rate of both sides, combined with Pittsburgh’s cautious defensive profile, therefore points towards an evenly matched result at full-time as well.