Brooklyn FC vs Rhode Island: match statistics

Rhode Island have posted stronger results over the season: they have won 9 matches and conceded 28 goals, while Brooklyn FC have recorded 4 wins and conceded 49. The hosts have failed to win any of their last 5 matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 13; the visitors have scored 5 and conceded 6 over the same period. Away from home, Rhode Island create chances worth an average xG of 1.69, compared with Brooklyn’s 1.49 at home, and also register more shots on target per match — 5.67 to 4.83. The visitors’ chances are tempered by the fact they have lost 67% of their away matches, while Brooklyn have been beaten in 50% of their home games. Even so, Rhode Island’s edge in season-long efficiency and recent form points to an away win.

Although Brooklyn FC had BTTS - Yes in 67% of its matches, it averaged just 0.6 goals over its last five games, while Rhode Island kept a clean sheet in 17% of its matches. The visitors failed to score in 42% of their games, a significant indication against both teams finding the net. On the other hand, their average xG is 1.69, and Brooklyn has recently conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match, so a Rhode Island goal remains a realistic possibility. However, both teams scored in only 40% of the teams’ last five matches, making BTTS - No slightly more likely: at least one team is expected not to score, though this does not necessarily mean a 0-0 result.

Over 1.5 goals landed in 83% of Brooklyn FC matches and 67% of Rhode Island matches, providing a stronger signal than the data for higher lines. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals, while the visitors concede 1.42; additionally, Brooklyn FC's xG is 1.84, compared with the 1.43 xG conceded by Rhode Island. However, the hosts' recent form is weaker: they have scored just 3 goals in 5 matches, while conceding as many as 13, which increases the visitors' chances of finding the net. With a forecast of 2.70 goals, Over 1.5 is the safest pick, while Over 2.5 landed in only 42% of Brooklyn FC matches and 50% of Rhode Island matches.

The pick for Rhode Island to lead at the break and hold on to the lead through full time is based primarily on recent form: Brooklyn were trailing at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches and failed to score before the break in any of them. Over the same period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match, compared with 1.2 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood that Rhode Island can capitalize on an early advantage. Rhode Island have not been particularly impressive either, but they earned 4 points from their last 5 matches, compared with Brooklyn’s 2, and averaged 1.4 points in second halves, versus 0.8 for the hosts. The main caveat is Brooklyn’s edge over the full sample: they scored an average of 1.67 goals, compared with 1.25 for the visitors, and won 50% of second halves, versus 25% for Rhode Island. Therefore, the 2/2 HT/FT outcome is only marginally more likely than a draw at half-time followed by a home win.