BUL vs Ntugasaze: match statistics

BUL opened the season with two wins, scoring 5 goals and conceding just 1, while Ntugasaze lost both matches with a 1:4 goal difference. At home, the hosts have won 100% of their matches and kept a clean sheet in every one, whereas the visitors have lost 100% of their away fixtures and have failed to score on each occasion. BUL create plenty of chances, averaging 18 shots per home game compared with Ntugasaze’s 11 attempts away from home. Although the hosts’ xG against them stands at a high 2.38, their defence has yet to concede a goal at home, which, combined with the visitors’ lack of attacking efficiency, strongly supports a win for the league leaders. BUL’s recent form has been slightly less consistent, with 6 goals conceded in their last five matches, so a draw remains a realistic alternative.

The stronger signal points to the BTTS - No scenario, as Ntugasaze have averaged no goals scored in the season data and failed to score in 100% of their matches. The visitors have averaged just 0.5 goals per game across their last 5 matches, despite recording an average xG of 1.93, which indicates a clear finishing problem. BUL do not keep clean sheets and their defence allows an average of 1.77 xG; however, the hosts may be able to contain a side with a 0% shot-conversion rate. The latest BTTS figures stand at 40% for BUL and 50% for Ntugasaze, while the league average is 47%, so the data does not support a strong Goal/Goal trend. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 20 shots and generating 2.33 xG, making a home goal without a response from the visitors more likely than an exchange of goals.

The projected 2.20 goals are close to the league average of 2.20, which does not point to a scenario featuring four or more goals. In their last 5 matches, BUL averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with only 40% of those games going Over 2.5 goals. Ntugasaze scored just 0.5 goals per match during this period, despite an average xG of 1.93, indicating that some of his attacking potential remains unconverted. The visitors have seen 50% of their matches go Over 2.5 goals, but they have yet to score away from home according to the available data, reducing the likelihood of an open, end-to-end game. The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as even with defensive issues on both sides, the expected goal level leaves a clear margin below this line.

Recent form clearly favors BUL: the hosts have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, while Ntugasaze have scored just 0.5 goals and allowed opponents 2.0. BUL held a lead at the break in 40% of their last five matches and averaged 0.8 goals before half-time, whereas Ntugasaze have not led at half-time on any occasion, failed to score in the first half, and lost the first half in 100% of cases. The hosts’ superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG is 2.33 compared with the visitors’ 1.53, while their shot count is 20 versus 11. Ntugasaze have lost 100% of their last two matches, while BUL have recorded a 40% win rate and just 20% defeats across their last five fixtures. The most likely outcome is therefore BUL leading at half-time and maintaining that advantage until full-time, although the hosts’ poor conversion rate of 5% limits confidence in a high-scoring result.