Bursaspor vs Pendikspor: match statistics

Bursaspor sit 3rd in the table and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while 14th-placed Pendikspor have managed just one win over the same period. At home, the hosts average 2 goals and 16.75 shots per match, while the visitors score 1.2 goals from 11.6 shots away from home. Chance quality also favors Bursaspor: their home xG is 1.82, compared with Pendikspor’s away xG of 1.28. The biggest difference is in defense—the hosts concede an average of 1 goal at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, whereas the visitors concede 2.6 goals away and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. These advantages make a Bursaspor win the most likely outcome.

Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches, and each recorded the same rate across their last 5 fixtures—well above the league average of 54%. Bursaspor have averaged 2.2 goals per match recently and face Pendikspor, who conceded 1.6 goals per game over that period and have yet to keep a clean sheet in their matches so far. The visitors have averaged 1.2 goals per match, with an average xG of 1.28, giving them a genuine chance of scoring despite the hosts' improved defensive form. One factor weighing against BTTS - Yes is that Pendikspor failed to score in 20% of their matches, while Bursaspor kept a clean sheet in 20% of theirs. Even so, the overall picture of attacking output and results to date points towards both teams finding the net.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 80% of Bursaspor’s matches and 100% of Pendikspor’s. The hosts average 1.2 goals scored, while the visitors concede 2.6, which bodes well for Bursaspor to score; its average xG is 1.61, compared with the 1.32 xG conceded by Pendikspor. The visitors also average 1.2 goals scored, and both teams scored in 80% of each side’s matches, making a Pendikspor goal a realistic prospect as well. Although the 2.97-goal projection points to a chance of Over 2.5, this line has landed in 40% of the hosts’ matches and 60% of the visitors’ matches historically, so Over 1.5 offers a clearer signal.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Bursaspor win: the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 5 matches, while Pendikspor failed to score before half-time in 4 of their last 5. The possibility of the hosts leading at the break is also relevant, as Pendikspor were behind at half-time in 3 of 5 matches, but a draw is more consistent with Bursaspor’s first-half results to date. After the break, the visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals and have lost the second half in 4 of 5 matches, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will settle the contest later on. Bursaspor are also backed by a higher xG, reflecting the quality of chances created: 1.61 compared with Pendikspor’s 1.28, as well as an average of 4.6 shots on target versus 3.2. However, the hosts’ advantage is not certain, as they have won only 20% of the matches in this sample, so the X/1 scenario is assigned a probability of 26%, rather than a clear majority.