Busan I'Park vs Ansan Greeners: match statistics

Busan I'Park sit 6th, while Ansan Greeners are down in 16th, and the overall season record clearly favors the hosts: 11 wins and 39 goals scored compared with the visitors’ 5 victories and 24 goals. At home, Busan average 1.73 goals per match and win 55% of their games, whereas Ansan score just 1.00 goal away from home and lose 44% of their away fixtures. The hosts create more in the final third, averaging 11.73 shots and 4.55 shots on target, compared with Ansan’s 7.22 shots and 3.33 attempts on target. The visitors’ defense looks particularly vulnerable under pressure, conceding an average opposition xG of 2.09 and 1.78 goals away from home, while Busan average 1.73 goals at home. Neither team has won any of their last five matches, but Ansan have lost three of them and conceded 10 goals during that period, so the hosts should be given the better chance of victory.

Busan I'Park have recorded BTTS in 86% of their league matches and have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game. Ansan Greeners score an average of 1.00 goal, but against a Busan defence allowing opponents an xG of 2.01, they should have a realistic chance of finding the net. Meanwhile, Ansan concede an average of 1.78 goals, with their average xG conceded reaching as high as 2.09, while Busan create an average of 1.21 xG. The signal is weakened by the hosts' poor recent attacking form, having scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches and recording BTTS in 40% of those games; however, Ansan conceded 2.00 goals per match over the same period. The data indicating defensive weaknesses on both sides, together with Ansan's 100% BTTS run across their last 5 appearances, slightly support the BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal outcome.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least two goals were scored in 93% of Busan’s matches and 78% of Ansan’s. Both defenses allow high-quality chances: Busan’s average xG conceded is 2.01, while Ansan’s is 2.09. Busan have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match, while Ansan concede an average of 1.78 goals per game, which should create clear opportunities for the hosts despite scoring just 0.4 goals on average in their last five outings. The 2.5 line is more evenly balanced, with Busan recording Over 2.5 goals in 79% of their matches this season, compared with just 44% for Ansan. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals remains the safer option and the one more clearly supported by the data.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at the final whistle, as Busan have drawn at half-time in all of their last five matches, scoring just 0.2 goals per game before the break. Ansan also tend to start cautiously: they were level after 45 minutes in 56% of their matches this season, with a first-half average of just 0.33 goals scored. Neither team has won any of their last five matches, with Busan recording draws in 60% of them and Ansan in 40%, which reduces the likelihood of a clear outcome. The hosts have a poor season record, winning only 14% of their matches and conceding an average of 2.0 goals, while the visitors also allow opponents to score 1.78 goals per game and have lost 44% of their fixtures. After the break, both teams concede more than they score—Busan 1.21 versus 0.43 goals, and Ansan 1.0 versus 0.67—so a full-time draw remains the most likely outcome, although the HT/FT draw/away win scenario is a close second.