Buxoro vs Lokomotiv: match statistics
Buxoro vs Lokomotiv: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Buxoro played Lokomotiv in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 1 August 2026. Venue: Buxoro Sport Majmuasi. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Buxoro: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Lokomotiv: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Buxoro scores 1.21 and concedes 1.07 goals per match. Lokomotiv scores 1.50 and concedes 1.36. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Buxoro 50%, Lokomotiv 64%. Over 2.5: Buxoro 36%, Lokomotiv 50%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Lokomotiv has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.32. Buxoro: 10.9 shots per match, Lokomotiv: 13.7.
Match halves
Buxoro: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.57. Lokomotiv: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.93.
Goals by minute
Buxoro: 31-45+ (4 goals). Lokomotiv: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1) — Buxoro has a strong home profile: 71% home wins, positive home goal differential (+6) and just 0.57 goals conceded per home match. The visitors show better recent offensive numbers: Lokomotiv scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches and records away xG of 1.65 with 13.57 average shots per game. However, the home side converts more efficiently at home (13% conversion rate vs. the visitors’ 11%) and Buxoro keeps 43% clean sheets at home, while Lokomotiv has only 14% clean sheets on the road and concedes 1.57 goals per away game. A concern for Buxoro is recent form: only 3 goals in the last 5 fixtures and just 0.8 points per game, whereas Lokomotiv is averaging 1.8 points per game in the same period, which balances the visitors’ offensive potential. Considering the defensive edge for the hosts at their ground and Lokomotiv’s recent attacking efficiency, I assign probabilities: home 55%, draw 25%, away 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season and league statistics strongly favor BTTS: Buxoro has a seasonal BTTS of 57%, Lokomotiv 71%, and the league average is 56%, indicating both teams frequently feature in Goal/Goal games. In the last 5 matches the signal is mixed — Lokomotiv shows BTTS 100% and scored 14 goals (avg 2.8 per match), while Buxoro scored only 3 goals in those 5 matches (0.6 per match), although seasonally Buxoro averages 1.57 goals per game. xG underlines the offensive potential of both teams: xG_for is 1.7 for Buxoro and 1.65 for Lokomotiv, while xG_against is 1.32 vs 1.42, meaning both sides generate and concede roughly 1.3–1.7 expected goals per match. Additionally, the visitors rarely keep a clean sheet (14% vs 29% for the home side), Lokomotiv concedes 1.57 goals seasonally (1.6 in the last 5), and shots on target 5.14 vs 4.43 with identical conversion 11% indicate scoring opportunities arise for both teams. Based on this I assign 70% probability to BTTS - Yes and 30% to No as the most consistent signal from the available data.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model estimates total expected goals at 3.05: home side 1.56 (home xG 1.70 and xG conceded to visitors 1.42) and away side 1.49 (away xG 1.65 and xG conceded to hosts 1.32). Seasonal metrics show Buxoro have 71% of matches over 1.5 and Lokomotiv 100%, providing a very strong signal for Over 1.5; additionally both teams have a high share of BTTS matches (57% for Buxoro and 71% for Lokomotiv). Over 2.5 is moderately likely: seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 43% for Buxoro and 57% for Lokomotiv, while in the last 5 matches Lokomotiv scored 14 goals (2.8 per game), which increases the probability of more than 2 goals. Both teams also average around 13–14 shots (Buxoro 13.86, Lokomotiv 13.57) and average 5.14 and 4.43 on-target shots respectively, confirming consistent chance creation. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (pick: Over at the 1.5 line).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely scenario is a draw: the home side had a draw at the break in 57% of matches, while the visitors scored 11 goals before half-time compared to 4 for the hosts, indicating frequent level or minimal leads in the first half. After the break the hosts have a clear edge — they average 1.29 goals in second halves versus 0.57 for the visitors, and the average second-half totals are 2.14 for the home team vs 1.43 for the away team. Additionally, hosts win second halves in 43% of cases compared to 28% for the visitors, and at home they record 43% wins and only 14% losses on the season, which increases the likelihood of a victory following an even HT. With similar xG (1.70 vs 1.65) and more on-target shots for the hosts (5.14 vs 4.43), the strongest scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Buxoro | Lokomotiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Buxoro is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Buxoro · 1.6 pts / match - Lokomotiv
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lokomotiv is 24% better for: goals scored per match.
1.21 goals / match - Buxoro · 1.5 goals / match - Lokomotiv
Buxoro is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.07 goals / match - Buxoro · 1.36 goals / match - Lokomotiv
Buxoro scores in 86% of matches (12 of 14 matches), while Lokomotiv keeps a clean sheet in 21% (3 of 14 matches).
Lokomotiv scores in 79% of matches (11 of 14 matches), while Buxoro keeps a clean sheet in 36% (5 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Buxoro
Over / Under — Lokomotiv
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Buxoro is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.64 pts / match - Buxoro · 1.36 pts / match - Lokomotiv
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Buxoro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Lokomotiv - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Buxoro
Lokomotiv
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Buxoro | Liga | Lokomotiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.29 | 2.59 | ▲ 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 36% | 51% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 25% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 67% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 78% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
FAQ
What was the result of Buxoro vs Lokomotiv?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Buxoro 2:1 Lokomotiv. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Buxoro vs Lokomotiv?
Buxoro score 1.21 goals per game on average and Lokomotiv 1.50. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Buxoro's matches and 64% of Lokomotiv's.
What form are Buxoro and Lokomotiv in?
Over the last 5 games Buxoro have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Lokomotiv 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Buxoro vs Lokomotiv?
The statistical background for Buxoro vs Lokomotiv — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.