Bylis Ballsh vs Teuta Durrës: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Bylis creates noticeably more chances at home: on average 4.06 shots on target and 10.44 attempts, translating to 1.13 goals per game with a conversion rate of 11%, while Teuta away posts 2.63 shots on target, 9.38 attempts and 0.69 goals with a 7% conversion. The xG gap is moderate (1.36 xG for Bylis at home vs 1.18 xG for Teuta away), indicating Bylis’s edge stems primarily from a higher volume and quality of chances. Teuta do defend solidly on the road — 50% clean sheets and an average of 0.88 goals conceded per game versus Bylis’s 1.00 conceded at home — so I expect a home win, but not a high-scoring affair.

Statistical analysis indicates a moderately higher probability for BTTS - Yes: Bylis has a seasonal BTTS rate of 63% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Teuta has 31% for the season and 40% in their last five. Both teams generate similar xG and chances — offensive xG is 1.20 for Bylis versus 1.18 for Teuta, and average shots are 9.44 vs 9.38 with 2.94 and 2.63 on target respectively, providing a realistic opportunity for goals from both sides. The counterargument is Teuta’s high clean sheet rate away (50%) and their low efficiency (conversion rate 7% vs hosts’ 11%), which reduces the guests’ scoring chances. However, the hosts’ defensive weakness (conceding 1.06 goals on average this season and 1.42 xG against in the last 5 matches) and the fact both teams scored 4 goals each across their last five matches point to a risk of both teams scoring. Balancing these opposing signals I assess BTTS at 60% and No at 40% and pick Yes as the most justified selection.

I expect total goals around 2.22 (home expected goals 1.15 vs away 1.07). This comes from xG: Bylis xG_for 1.20 and Teuta xG_against 1.09 → 1.15 for the home side; Teuta xG_for 1.18 versus home xG_against 0.96 → 1.07 for the away side. With a mean of 2.22 the distribution implies probability of Over 1.5 goals ≈ 65%, Over 2.5 ≈ 38% and Over 3.5 ≈ 18%. Seasonal data support a moderate over potential: Bylis have Over 1.5 in 63% of matches (30 goals this season) whereas Teuta only 31% (28 goals), and Bylis show higher shot conversion 11% vs 7% and more shots on target (2.94 vs 2.63), which increases the chance of at least two goals. Therefore the best signal is Over 1.5 — 65% probability and a strong home frequency (63%) provide a stronger case than Over 2.5 (38%).

At half-time a draw appears most likely: the home team were level at the break in 50% of their matches and the away team in 56%, with average first-half goals 0.69 for the home side and only 0.19 for the visitors. The home side lead at the break more often than the visitors (31% vs 13%), but the high share of half-time draws points toward an X at Half-Time. For Full-Time a draw also dominates: xG is 1.20 versus 1.18, and the home team have better shot conversion 11% vs 7%, which evens out the chances and favors a no-decision result. The away team score more after the break (on average 0.50 goals in the second half vs 0.38 for the home side) and have netted 4 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 2 for the hosts, increasing the probability of maintaining or restoring a draw in the second half. As a result, the strongest signal is draw at Half-Time and draw at Full-Time (X/X) estimated at 27%, with alternative scenarios being home lead at Half-Time and draw at Full-Time (1/X) 11% and draw at Half-Time and home win at Full-Time (X/1) 16%.