CA Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid: match statistics

Osasuna boasts strong home metrics: at home they average 1.71 goals scored per match, concede 1.18 and generate 1.57 xG with an average of 5.12 shots on target and 13.76 total shots. Atlético have a better overall season record (19 wins and 58 goals vs. Osasuna’s 11 wins and 42 goals), but away they score only 1.18 goals on average, concede 1.24 and have just a 29% away win rate. In their last five matches Atlético average 1.4 points per game (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), while Osasuna average 0.8 points per game (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), which gives the visitors a slight form advantage. Additionally, the hosts have never finished a home match without scoring (0% scoreless home games), whereas Atlético failed to score in 18% of their away matches; combined with a higher shots-on-target rate (5.12 vs 3.88), this favors Osasuna. Considering the higher quality of the hosts’ chances (xG 1.57 vs away xG 1.31) and 53% home win rate versus Atlético’s 29% away win rate, I forecast a home victory, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

Seasonal metrics indicate a slightly higher probability for BTTS - Yes: Osasuna has a seasonal BTTS 50%, Atlético 53%, while the league BTTS level is 56%, supporting a Both Teams To Score selection. In the last 5 matches signals are mixed — Osasuna had BTTS 80% (4/5) and conceded on average 1.6 goals per game, whereas Atlético only 40% (2/5) and conceded 1.0 on average, suggesting the home side is more prone to Goal/Goal encounters. xG confirms a realistic chance for both sides: Osasuna home xG for 1.85 versus xG against Atlético 1.51 (Osasuna’s expected average ≈1.68), and Atlético away xG for 1.31 versus xG against Osasuna 0.99 (≈1.15), so both teams have projected goals ≥1.0. Additionally, the hosts average 6.39 shots on target with a 14% conversion vs Atlético 3.88 shots on target and 10% conversion, and clean sheets are moderate (Osasuna 39%, Atlético 35%), further increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Based on all the above figures I favor the 'Yes' variant with a probability of 68% versus 32% for 'No'.

Based on xG (Osasuna 1.85; Atlético 1.31) and average xG conceded (Osasuna 0.99; Atlético 1.51) we get expected goals of 1.68 for Osasuna (=(1.85+1.51)/2) and 1.15 for Atlético (=(1.31+0.99)/2), totaling 2.83. Osasuna at home averages 2.11 goals and 6.39 shots on target, while Atlético away averages 1.18 goals and 3.88 shots on target, giving the hosts an offensive edge. Season-long metrics show Over 1.5 in 72% of Osasuna’s matches and 76% of Atlético’s, and Over 2.5 in 56% vs 41%, so at least 2 goals is highly likely, whereas 3+ is less certain. A Poisson model with a total mean of 2.83 yields roughly 77–78% probability for Over 1.5, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~32% for Over 3.5; therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Osasuna averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, and Atlético’s recent xG is 1.54, which further supports the scenario of at least two goals.

A draw at half-time appears most likely: the home team draws at the break in 61% of matches and the away team in 59%, so the HT scenario X (draw at half-time) is dominant. After the break, however, Osasuna holds the advantage — the hosts average 1.33 goals in the second half and win that half in 61% of matches, whereas Atlético scores only 0.47 goals on average after the break and wins the second half in 24% of matches. The quality gap is confirmed by xG (1.85 for the hosts versus 1.31 for the visitors), more shots on target (6.39 vs 3.88) and higher conversion rate (14% vs 10%), which increases the hosts’ chances of a turnaround after the break. Additionally, Osasuna win at home in 78% of matches versus Atlético’s 29% away wins, so the strongest signal from the data is X/1 — draw at half-time and home win at full-time.