Cacahuatique vs Municipal Limeño: match statistics

Cacahuatique have significantly better home figures, averaging 2 goals per match, while Municipal Limeño score only 0.5 goals away from home. The visitors have lost both of their away matches so far, conceding an average of 2.5 goals, while their defence allows opponents chances worth 2.27 xG. The hosts are also not entirely reliable defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals at home from opponents generating 1.80 xG, so a draw or a Limeño goal remains a realistic scenario. However, the key factor is the visitors’ extremely low shot conversion rate of just 5%, as well as the fact that they have failed to score in 50% of their away matches. Cacahuatique are coming off a run of three consecutive draws, but their edge in chance creation (1.46 xG versus 1.39) and significantly better finishing efficiency support the home side.

Cacahuatique average 1.0 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 33% of matches, while Municipal Limeño score just 0.5 goals per away game. The visitors have failed to score in 50% of their matches, and their shot conversion rate is only 5%, compared with 9% for the hosts. Although the hosts’ last five matches produced BTTS - Yes in 60% of cases, Municipal Limeño recorded that outcome in only 40% of matches during the same period and averaged 0.8 goals. The visitors’ high away xG of 1.39 and the 1.42 xG conceded by Cacahuatique give them a chance to score, but their poor actual goal output and the hosts’ season BTTS rate of 33% provide stronger support for a scenario in which at least one team fails to score, meaning BTTS - No.

Cacahuatique create chances worth an average of 1.72 xG at home, while Municipal Limeño allow opponents 2.27 xG away from home, so the hosts should score around 1.65 goals. However, the visitors score only 0.50 goals per away match and have a 5% conversion rate, although their latest xG of 1.59 indicates a realistic chance of scoring once. Across the entire season, Cacahuatique matches have never exceeded 3.5 goals, with 100% finishing below that line. Even against a weaker away defense, with the visitors conceding an average of 2.50 goals on the road, the hosts’ profile remains relatively controlled: they score an average of 1.00 goal and have not scored more than two goals in any match. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, supported by a projected total of 2.50 goals and a 75% probability of staying below four goals.

Cacahuatique hold a clear advantage in full-match data: they average 1.0 goals scored, compared with just 0.5 for Municipal Limeño, while the visitors concede as many as 2.5 goals per match. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances, with the hosts posting an xG of 1.72 and Limeño’s defence allowing opponents 2.27 xG. At half-time, however, a draw is the most likely outcome: Cacahuatique were level after 45 minutes in 67% of their matches this season and in 80% of their last five, with just 1.0 goal on average scored by both sides in the first half. After the break, the hosts have yet to concede on a season-average basis, whereas Limeño concede an average of 2.0 goals in the second half and have lost every second half they have played so far. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a Cacahuatique win at full-time is therefore the strongest, particularly as the visitors have lost 60% of their last five matches.