Cádiz vs Córdoba: match statistics

Cádiz holds a slight edge due to superior defensive performance: at home they concede on average 1.31 goals per match and have a 38% home win rate, while Córdoba concede 1.65 away and keep a clean sheet in only 18% of away games. Although Córdoba have scored 43 goals this season versus Cádiz’s 32 and show higher average xG on the road (1.54 vs 1.39) plus more shots on target (4.82 vs 3.69), the visitors’ recent form defensively is very poor — 14 goals conceded in the last 5 matches. Offensively the visitors are more efficient (1.29 goals per away match and 10% shot conversion vs 1.00 goal and 8% for the hosts), yet Córdoba fail to turn that into points (average 0.2 points in the last 5 matches). Cádiz average 0.6 points in their last 5 with 1 win in that period; combined with home advantage and fewer goals conceded this gives them a realistic chance to win. I estimate Cádiz win probability ~52%, draw 23%, away win 25%.

Seasonal metrics strongly favor BTTS: Cádiz has BTTS at 63%, Córdoba 71%, versus a league average of 55%. Both teams average 1.31 and 1.29 goals scored per match and concede 1.44 and 1.65 respectively, indicating frequent occurrences of Goal/Goal during the season. Chance-creation data reinforces this — Cádiz produces 1.92 xG and 17.56 shots (5.63 on target), Córdoba 1.54 xG and 13.53 shots (4.82 on target), while xG against are 1.18 and 1.37, so opportunities arise at both ends. A warning comes from form over the last 5 matches: Cádiz has only 20% BTTS, scored 3 goals (0.6 avg.) and conceded 9 (1.8 avg.), and Córdoba 40% BTTS with 5 goals (1.0 avg.) and 14 conceded (2.8 avg.), which slightly reduces confidence in the pick. Considering the weight of seasonal signals (combined BTTS average 67%, low clean sheet expected rates 25%/18% and high share of matches over 2.5 goals 56%/65%), I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No.

Based on the home xG of 1.92 and xG conceded to Córdoba of 1.37 I estimate 1.65 expected goals for Cádiz, while the average of Córdoba’s xG 1.54 and xG conceded to Cádiz 1.18 yields 1.36 expected goals for the visitors; the combined value is 3.01 goals. Seasonally both teams have a high share of matches with at least 2 goals: Cádiz 81% and Córdoba 82%, which supports a strong probability for Over 1.5 (the model gives ~80%). For the 2.5 line the seasonal over percentages are 56% for Cádiz and 65% for Córdoba, and with λ=3.01 the chance of at least 3 goals is about 58%, so Over 2.5 is moderately favorable. The 3.5 line has weaker support: seasonally 38% and 35% for the two teams, and the model shows roughly a 35% chance of Over, therefore Under 3.5 has a clear edge. Additionally both teams have a high share of matches where both teams score (63% and 71%) and low clean sheet probabilities (25% and 18%), while shot volumes 17.56 vs 13.53 and shots on target 5.63 vs 4.82 suggest Over 1.5 is the strongest selection.

I select 1/1 as the strongest scenario because Cádiz has a clear quality advantage: xG 1.92 versus Córdoba 1.54, more shots 17.56 vs 13.53 and more shots on target 5.63 vs 4.82. Half-time statistics show the home side led in 31% of matches, while HT draws occur frequently (38% for Cádiz and 53% for Córdoba, averaging around 45%), but Córdoba concedes an average of 1.65 goals per game and has a higher xG conceded of 1.37, which increases Cádiz’s chances of maintaining a lead at the break. I extrapolate the probability of Cádiz leading at half-time to about 39%, and given the xG and shot advantage I expect such a lead to convert into a full-time victory in most cases (around 60–65%), hence ~24% for 1/1. The second-strongest signal is X/1 (~21%), because a draw at half-time is common, yet the superiority in chance creation and the visitors’ weaker defensive averages favor a home turnaround to win.