Cádiz vs Deportivo La Coruña: match statistics

The favorite in this match is Deportivo La Coruña — the visitors have 19 wins this season versus Cádiz's 10 and sit 3rd in the table, while the hosts are 18th. In attack Deportivo have scored 59 goals this season (avg. 1.63 goals per away game) versus the hosts' 36 goals (0.95 goals per home game), and with 4.21 shots on target per game and a 13% conversion rate the visitors are more efficient than Cádiz (3.68 shots on target and 8% conversion). Recent form also favors the visitors: Cádiz have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses and 0.2 points per game in their last five, while Deportivo have 2 wins and 3 draws and 1.8 points per game; in the last five Cádiz scored 4 and conceded 11 goals (2.2 per game), Deportivo scored 8 and conceded 5 (1.0 per game). Defensively the visitors concede 1.16 goals on average away versus Cádiz conceding 1.42 at home, and both teams have average xG of 1.38, suggesting a similar number of chances but greater finishing efficiency from the visitors. Considering higher shot efficiency (13% vs 8%), better form (1.8 vs 0.2 pts/game) and the goal differential (59 vs 36), I predict an away win and estimate probabilities: home 14%, draw 18%, away 68%.

Seasonal BTTS indicators favor Yes: Cádiz has BTTS 53%, Deportivo 68%, and the league average is 56%, supporting the Both Teams To Score option. In the last 5 matches the signal is even stronger — Deportivo has BTTS 100% (5/5), Cádiz 60% (3/5); in that period Deportivo scored 8 and conceded 5, while Cádiz scored only 4 and conceded 11, so Deportivo scores regularly and Cádiz has been vulnerable defensively. Quality-of-chance metrics confirm this: Deportivo averaged 1.53 xG per match over the last 5, while Cádiz conceded 1.52 xG and conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match in the same period. Deportivo has higher shot conversion (13% with an average of 4.21 shots on target) than Cádiz (11% with 4.37), and clean sheets occur for Deportivo in only 16% of matches versus 32% for Cádiz, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering Deportivo’s 100% BTTS in the last five, the seasonal 68%, and Cádiz’s recent defensive issues (11 goals conceded in 5 matches), I assign BTTS 'Yes' a probability of 78% versus 22% 'No'.

The combined xG of both teams yields total expected goals around 2.84: home side ~1.51 (xG_for 1.48 vs xG_against_away 1.53) and visitors ~1.33 (xG_for 1.38 vs xG_against_home 1.27). Both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals this season — Cádiz in 79% of matches, Deportivo in 89% — hence a high probability for Over 1.5 (88%). The 2.5 line is moderately likely: season-long Cádiz has 53% Over 2.5 and Deportivo 47%, but in the last 5 matches Cádiz recorded 80% Over 2.5, and BTTS is 53% and 68% respectively, which pushes the chances for Over 2.5 to approx. 63%. Over 3.5 is unlikely — season values are 21% (Cádiz) and 26% (Deportivo), and the league average goals of 2.65 with our expected 2.84 suggest a preference for Under 3.5 (76%). The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, therefore I recommend backing Over at the 1.5 line.

Cádiz led at the break in 8 of their matches so far (42%) compared to Deportivo in 4 matches (21%), which strongly favors the hosts in the first 45 minutes. The home side average 0.79 goals by half-time and concede only 0.37, and they keep a clean sheet at the break in 63% of matches, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. Deportivo, however, are strong after the break: they win 57% of second halves and score on average 1.11 goals after half-time, with 12 goals scored in minutes 76–90, so a turnaround is realistic. Overall the most reliable signal from the data is the hosts holding their lead to the end (HT/FT 1/1) — I assign it a 17% probability, while HT/FT 1/2 I assess at 15% and HT/FT 2/2 at 14%.