Cádiz vs Real Valladolid: match statistics

Cádiz remain unbeaten this season, with 2 draws and a 2:2 goal difference, while Real Valladolid have lost both of their matches so far, failing to score and conceding 3 goals. At home, the hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 17 shots and an xG of 1.67, compared with Valladolid’s 11.5 shots and xG of 1.21 away from home. Cádiz are yet to concede at home, with opponents recording an xG of 0.90, whereas the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per away game. Neither team has scored yet at home or away respectively, increasing the likelihood of a draw; however, Cádiz’s advantage in chance quality and defensive organisation points towards a narrow home win.

The BTTS signal is below the league average: both teams scored in 40% of Cádiz’s last five matches, compared with just 20% for Real Valladolid and 41% across the Segunda División. The hosts averaged 1.0 goals scored during this period, with an xG of 1.04, while Valladolid produced only 1.06 xG despite averaging 1.4 goals per match. Both defences conceded an average of 1.2 goals across their last five matches, but the visitors’ particularly low BTTS rate indicates that one side often fails to score. The league averages just 2.27 goals per match, further supporting a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. Therefore, BTTS - No is favoured: this means that at least one team is expected to score no goals, and does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Cádiz’s last five matches produced an average of 2.2 goals, while Real Valladolid’s averaged 2.6, yet both teams had at least three goals in just 40% of their matches. The quality of chances created is moderate: Cádiz average 1.04 xG and Valladolid 1.06 xG, while their opponents are allowed 1.13 and 0.95 xG, respectively. The projected total of 2.07 goals also remains below the league-wide average of 2.27, with only 41% of league matches going Over 2.5 goals. The Under 3.5 line has a clear edge, as it allows for up to three goals, while the xG data and frequency of high-scoring results do not point to regular four-goal games.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Cádiz were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Real Valladolid did so in 2 of 5. Both teams play cautiously before half-time: the hosts average 0.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded during this period, whereas the visitors score 0.4 and concede 0.6. After the break, however, Valladolid look more convincing, averaging 1.0 goals compared with Cádiz’s 0.6, while their second-half goal difference stands at +2, compared with the hosts’ zero balance. The visitors have won 40% of their last five matches, while Cádiz have won only 20%, so after an even start, Valladolid have a greater chance of turning the game in their favour late on. In addition, at least one goal was scored after half-time in 4 of the last 5 matches involving either team, supporting the HT/FT draw/Valladolid win (X/2) outcome.