Caen vs Bastia: match statistics

Caen sit 4th, while Bastia are 12th, and the difference is reflected in their recent form: the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have won just 1 and suffered 3 defeats. Caen have scored 14 goals in their last five games, compared with Bastia’s 8, and average 2.5 goals per match at home. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 14 shots, including 6 on target, compared with just 6 attempts and 3 shots on target for Bastia away from home. The quality of chances clearly favours Caen, whose average xG stands at 1.66 compared with 0.99 for their opponents, while 68% possession should further help them control the match. Bastia did win their only away game without conceding, but their weaker overall trend and 12 goals conceded in their last five appearances point towards a home win.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, significantly above the league average of 33%. During this period, Caen averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Bastia scored 1.6 goals but allowed opponents 2.4 goals per match. The hosts should be able to exploit Bastia’s recent defensive weakness, despite the visitors having kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far this season. Bastia’s case for scoring is supported by their average of 1.6 goals across their last five appearances, as well as the fact that Caen conceded an average of 1.4 goals during that run. The edge for BTTS - Yes is moderate, as Bastia’s xG from their last five matches stands at just 0.67; however, the current scoring form of both teams supports a scenario in which each side finds the net. This means BTTS - No is not the preferred outcome: it only requires at least one team to fail to score and does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Caen’s last five matches produced an average of 4.2 goals, with the team scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.4, while Bastia averaged 4.0 goals after scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.4. At the same time, the visitors’ chance creation remains limited: their xG across the last five matches stands at just 0.67, while Caen allowed opponents an xG of 1.54. Bastia have not yet had a match above 2.5 goals in the current campaign and have kept clean sheets in 100% of their games, although this sample should be balanced against their weaker recent defensive form. Caen have gone Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five matches, but the projected total of 2.55 goals points more often to a result in the 2–3 goal range than to four goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals has the edge, also supported by the low league percentage of matches finishing above 2.5 goals, at 33%.

Caen are in clearly better current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches while scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding 1.4, whereas Bastia have won only 1 of their last 5 games and conceded an average of 2.4 goals. Before half-time, the hosts score an average of 1.0 goal and concede 0.6, while Bastia score 0.75 goals but allow an average of 1.5. Bastia were trailing at the break in 75% of their recent matches, whereas Caen were leading at half-time in 40% and level in a further 40%, supporting the scenario of a home advantage in the first half. After the interval, Caen score an average of 1.8 goals and win the second half in 80% of matches, compared with Bastia’s 0% win rate, making it most likely that the hosts will maintain their lead until the final whistle.