Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay: match statistics
Caernarfon Town demonstrates a solid offense at their home stadium, scoring an average of 1.92 goals per home match with 46 goals in the season, surpassing Colwyn Bay's capabilities in away games (average 1 goal per match). The hosts hold the advantage in possession (55% vs 45%) and shot efficiency (14% vs 9%), indicating better game control at home. Colwyn Bay is characterized by a high percentage of matches without scoring on the road (42% FTS), which may limit their offensive potential. Despite the weaker form of both teams in the last five encounters, the identical goal difference (+3) and higher xG metrics for the hosts (1.62 vs 1.4) speak for their slight advantage. Given the competitive nature of the league and similar win percentages for both teams in their respective conditions (33% for hosts, 42% for visitors away), I expect a close match with a slight edge for Caernarfon Town.
Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Caernarfon Town played Colwyn Bay in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 27 February 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Caernarfon Town: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Colwyn Bay: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Caernarfon Town scores 1.77 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Colwyn Bay scores 1.35 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Caernarfon Town 69%, Colwyn Bay 50%. Over 2.5: Caernarfon Town 58%, Colwyn Bay 42%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Caernarfon Town has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.46. Caernarfon Town: 12.4 shots per match, Colwyn Bay: 11.7.
Match halves
Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 1.19. Colwyn Bay: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.58.
Goals by minute
Caernarfon Town: 76-90+ (12 goals). Colwyn Bay: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Caernarfon Town demonstrates a solid offense at their home stadium, scoring an average of 1.92 goals per home match with 46 goals in the season, surpassing Colwyn Bay's capabilities in away games (average 1 goal per match). The hosts hold the advantage in possession (55% vs 45%) and shot efficiency (14% vs 9%), indicating better game control at home. Colwyn Bay is characterized by a high percentage of matches without scoring on the road (42% FTS), which may limit their offensive potential. Despite the weaker form of both teams in the last five encounters, the identical goal difference (+3) and higher xG metrics for the hosts (1.62 vs 1.4) speak for their slight advantage. Given the competitive nature of the league and similar win percentages for both teams in their respective conditions (33% for hosts, 42% for visitors away), I expect a close match with a slight edge for Caernarfon Town.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Caernarfon Town | Colwyn Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Colwyn Bay is 133% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.4 pts / match - Colwyn Bay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Caernarfon Town is 31% better for: goals scored per match.
1.77 goals / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.35 goals / match - Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.15 goals / match - Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town scores in 81% of matches (21 of 26 matches), while Colwyn Bay keeps a clean sheet in 27% (7 of 26 matches).
Colwyn Bay scores in 69% of matches (18 of 26 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
Over / Under - Colwyn Bay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Colwyn Bay is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.08 pts / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.42 pts / match - Colwyn Bay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Colwyn Bay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Caernarfon Town | Liga | Colwyn Bay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.19 | 2.98 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 51% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 55% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 29% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 74% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 76% | ▼ 54% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Caernarfon Town 0 - 0 - 2 Colwyn Bay. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Caernarfon Town 3:0 Colwyn Bay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Caernarfon Town won 0, Colwyn Bay won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?
Caernarfon Town score 1.77 goals per game on average and Colwyn Bay 1.35. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Caernarfon Town's matches and 50% of Colwyn Bay's.
What form are Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay in?
Over the last 5 games Caernarfon Town have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Colwyn Bay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.