Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay: match statistics
Connah's Quay displays significantly better form, winning all of their last five matches and scoring an impressive 14 goals in that period. The visitors occupy 2nd place in the table with a record of 14 wins, 4 draws, and just 3 losses, while Caernarfon Town ranks in 4th position with clearly inferior statistics. In away matches, Connah's Quay achieves a 70% win rate and maintains 50% clean sheets, evidencing a solid defense. Caernarfon Town concedes an average of 1.6 goals per match at home and has only a 40% win rate, which may prove insufficient against the league leaders. The advantage in possession (56% vs 55%) and better xG metrics for the visitors further support the scenario of a Connah's Quay victory.
Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Caernarfon Town played Connah's Quay in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 13 January 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Caernarfon Town: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Connah's Quay: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Caernarfon Town scores 2.00 and concedes 1.43 goals per match. Connah's Quay scores 2.19 and concedes 1.10. League average: 3.07 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Caernarfon Town 71%, Connah's Quay 62%. Over 2.5: Caernarfon Town 62%, Connah's Quay 76%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Connah's Quay has higher xG: 1.85 vs 1.55. Caernarfon Town: 12.5 shots per match, Connah's Quay: 13.9.
Match halves
Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 1.38. Connah's Quay: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.33.
Goals by minute
Caernarfon Town: 61-75 (11 goals). Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.07 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Connah's Quay displays significantly better form, winning all of their last five matches and scoring an impressive 14 goals in that period. The visitors occupy 2nd place in the table with a record of 14 wins, 4 draws, and just 3 losses, while Caernarfon Town ranks in 4th position with clearly inferior statistics. In away matches, Connah's Quay achieves a 70% win rate and maintains 50% clean sheets, evidencing a solid defense. Caernarfon Town concedes an average of 1.6 goals per match at home and has only a 40% win rate, which may prove insufficient against the league leaders. The advantage in possession (56% vs 55%) and better xG metrics for the visitors further support the scenario of a Connah's Quay victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Caernarfon Town | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Connah's Quay is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Caernarfon Town · 3 pts / match - Connah's Quay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Caernarfon Town · 2.19 goals / match - Connah's Quay
Connah's Quay is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.43 goals / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.1 goals / match - Connah's Quay
Caernarfon Town scores in 86% of matches (18 of 21 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 33% (7 of 21 matches).
Connah's Quay scores in 90% of matches (19 of 21 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.19 pts / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.67 pts / match - Connah's Quay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Caernarfon Town
Connah's Quay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Caernarfon Town | Liga | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.43 | 3.07 | ▲ 3.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 52% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 62% | 59% | ▲ 76% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 76% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 75% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Caernarfon Town 1 - 0 - 0 Connah's Quay. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Caernarfon Town 2:2 Connah's Quay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
Caernarfon Town score 2.00 goals per game on average and Connah's Quay 2.19. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Caernarfon Town's matches and 62% of Connah's Quay's.
What form are Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay in?
Over the last 5 games Caernarfon Town have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Connah's Quay 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
The statistical background for Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.