Cagliari vs Inter Milan: match statistics

Both teams are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws apiece, with each averaging 2.2 points per game over this period. Inter, however, have shown significantly greater attacking strength, scoring 9 goals in their last five outings compared with Cagliari’s 5. In their respective most recent league matches, the Milan side also won 4:1, while the hosts prevailed by only 1:0, indicating Inter’s greater potential to establish a clear goal advantage. Cagliari have defended very solidly, conceding just 2 goals in their last five matches compared with Inter’s 4, so a draw remains a realistic scenario. Inter’s higher league position—second compared with Cagliari’s fifth—and their superior finishing ultimately point towards an away win.

The stronger signal is against BTTS - Yes, driven by Cagliari’s very solid recent defensive record: the team conceded only 0.4 goals per match across its last five games, while BTTS landed in just 20% of those fixtures. Inter are, however, in good attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches with an xG of 1.43, so their goal remains highly likely. The key risk lies with Cagliari, who scored only 1.0 goal per game over the same period, while Inter conceded an average of 0.8 goals. The seasonal sample is extremely small and inconsistent, so greater weight should be given to current form and the league BTTS rate of just 40%. The most likely scenario is that at least one team—above all Cagliari—will fail to score, meaning BTTS - No rather than an automatic 0:0 or neither team scoring.

In their last five matches, Cagliari averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded just 0.4, indicating very solid defensive organization. Over the same period, Inter scored 1.8 goals per game, but their matches went over 2.5 goals in only 40% of cases. The attacking potential of both sides is moderate: Cagliari’s xG stands at 1.26, compared with Inter’s 1.27 xG conceded, while Inter produces 1.43 xG against 1.15 xG allowed by the hosts. This setup points to an expected total of around 2.55 goals, making a result with a maximum of three goals the most likely outcome. Under 3.5 therefore holds the advantage, supported by Cagliari’s low average of goals conceded and the lack of a strong signal for an open, four-goal game.

The strongest signal is a half-time draw, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 4 of their last 5 matches, representing 80% of cases. During this period, Cagliari scored just 0.2 goals per match before the break and conceded none, which points to a cautious opening. Inter were clearly more effective across their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals compared with Cagliari’s 1.0, while both teams recorded an identical average of 2.2 points per game. After the break, the visitors averaged 1.2 goals and the hosts 0.8, while at least two second-half goals were scored in 60% of Inter’s matches but only 20% of Cagliari’s. A draw at half-time followed by an Inter win, namely the HT/FT selection X/2, best combines the low scoring level before the break with the visitors’ greater attacking potential after half-time.