Calcio Padova vs Ascoli: match statistics

Ascoli sit 4th, while Calcio Padova are only 11th, and the visitors have won 2 of their 3 league matches so far without suffering a defeat. In their last five matches, Ascoli have scored 8 goals and recorded 3 wins, whereas Padova have managed just 4 goals, lost 3 times and conceded as many as 9. Away from home, Ascoli average 2 goals per match, record 10 shots and 3 shots on target, with 54% possession; at home, Padova post figures of 1 goal, 7 shots, 2 shots on target and 39% possession respectively. However, the hosts have a chance of finding the net, as the visitors allow opponents a high xG of 2.30 away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Nevertheless, Ascoli’s superior current form, control of play and away record point to an away victory.

The BTTS signal is particularly strong on the Ascoli side, who have seen both teams score in 100% of their matches this season and in 80% of their last five games. Padova have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five fixtures, while their defense has conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match during this period, compared with 1.4 goals for Ascoli. The hosts nevertheless create a solid volume of chances: their average xG stands at 1.69 this season, with 16 shots and 5 shots on target per match, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents an average xG as high as 2.30. Ascoli have scored an average of 1.6 goals in their last five matches and post an xG of 1.51, which, combined with Padova’s recent defensive vulnerability, increases the visitors’ chances of scoring. The main risk to the pick is Padova’s 50% clean-sheet rate this season and their average of only 0.8 goals scored across their last five matches, but the attacking and defensive data more clearly support goals from both teams.

Padova create chances worth an average of 1.69 xG at home, while Ascoli allow opponents as much as 2.30 xG away from home, which clearly supports a goal for the hosts. The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals away from home, while Padova concede just 0.5 goals at home, making the projection for Ascoli more moderate at 1.20 goals. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with both sides scoring in 60% and 80% of cases, respectively, while their average xG over this period adds up to approximately 2.87 expected goals. Ascoli have gone above 1.5 goals in 100% of their away matches so far, while the combination of the hosts' attacking potential and the visitors' defensive issues makes Over 1.5 the strongest pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Ascoli win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Padova were trailing at half-time in 3 of those 5 games. Ascoli have been clearly more effective in their current form: they average 1.6 goals per match and have won 60% of their last five fixtures, whereas Padova score just 0.8 goals and lost 60% of those matches. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident after the break, when they have averaged 1.2 goals across their last five appearances, compared with just 0.2 for the hosts. Padova do have the better average xG, 1.69 compared with 1.13, but Ascoli compensate with a very high 20% shot-conversion rate, against just 6% for the hosts. Padova have recently conceded an average of 0.8 goals after half-time, which supports the prospect of a closely contested opening being decided by Ascoli in the second half.