Calcio Padova vs Carrarese: match statistics
Carrarese presents significantly better form in the last five matches, securing 3 victories and noting 2 points per match, while Calcio Padova has just 0.8 points per match and only one victory. The hosts have a poor home disposition with a mere 18% win rate and a negative goal difference (-2), while the visitors, despite difficulties on the road (18% wins), show better shooting effectiveness (13% shot conversion vs 10% for the hosts). Carrarese has conceded only 3 goals in the last five matches, evidencing improved defense, whereas Padova conceded as many as 10 goals in the same period. Taking into account the current form of both teams and xG statistics, which are similar, psychological advantage and momentum are on the visitors' side. I expect a close match with a slight advantage for Carrarese, who may exploit the hosts' weaker disposition.
Calcio Padova vs Carrarese: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Calcio Padova played Carrarese in Serie B (Italy). The match was played on 10 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Calcio Padova: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Carrarese: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Calcio Padova scores 1.04 and concedes 1.30 goals per match. Carrarese scores 1.35 and concedes 1.39. League average: 2.49 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Calcio Padova 57%, Carrarese 52%. Over 2.5: Calcio Padova 43%, Carrarese 57%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Carrarese has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.24. Calcio Padova: 11.1 shots per match, Carrarese: 12.7.
Match halves
Calcio Padova: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.70. Carrarese: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.87.
Goals by minute
Calcio Padova: 76-90+ (7 goals). Carrarese: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.49 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Carrarese presents significantly better form in the last five matches, securing 3 victories and noting 2 points per match, while Calcio Padova has just 0.8 points per match and only one victory. The hosts have a poor home disposition with a mere 18% win rate and a negative goal difference (-2), while the visitors, despite difficulties on the road (18% wins), show better shooting effectiveness (13% shot conversion vs 10% for the hosts). Carrarese has conceded only 3 goals in the last five matches, evidencing improved defense, whereas Padova conceded as many as 10 goals in the same period. Taking into account the current form of both teams and xG statistics, which are similar, psychological advantage and momentum are on the visitors' side. I expect a close match with a slight advantage for Carrarese, who may exploit the hosts' weaker disposition.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Calcio Padova | Carrarese | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carrarese is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Calcio Padova · 2 pts / match - Carrarese
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carrarese is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.04 goals / match - Calcio Padova · 1.35 goals / match - Carrarese
Calcio Padova is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.3 goals / match - Calcio Padova · 1.39 goals / match - Carrarese
Calcio Padova scores in 74% of matches (17 of 23 matches), while Carrarese keeps a clean sheet in 39% (9 of 23 matches).
Carrarese scores in 70% of matches (16 of 23 matches), while Calcio Padova keeps a clean sheet in 22% (5 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Calcio Padova
Over / Under - Carrarese
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Carrarese is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.78 pts / match - Calcio Padova · 1.13 pts / match - Carrarese
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Calcio Padova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Carrarese - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Calcio Padova
Carrarese
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Calcio Padova | Liga | Carrarese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.35 | 2.49 | ▲ 2.74 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 48% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 26% | ▲ 39% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 70% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 75% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Calcio Padova 0 - 1 - 0 Carrarese. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Calcio Padova vs Carrarese?
The Serie B match finished Calcio Padova 1:0 Carrarese. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Calcio Padova vs Carrarese?
Calcio Padova score 1.04 goals per game on average and Carrarese 1.35. The Serie B average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Calcio Padova's matches and 52% of Carrarese's.
What form are Calcio Padova and Carrarese in?
Over the last 5 games Calcio Padova have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Carrarese 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Calcio Padova vs Carrarese?
The statistical background for Calcio Padova vs Carrarese — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.