Calvary vs Buhimba United Saints: match statistics

Both teams sit in the lower table positions (Calvary 16th, Buhimba 15th) and display poor form: Calvary at home have a record of 0-5-15 and have scored 7 goals (0.33 per match), while Buhimba away are 4-3-14 with 15 goals (0.64 per match). Calvary create significantly more chances – averaging 16 shots and 4 on target at home with xG 1.91 – whereas Buhimba on the road average 6.11 shots, 2.89 on target and xG 0.96, which indicates a home advantage in chance quality. At the same time the hosts struggle with finishing (78% of home matches without a goal) despite high xG, and the visitors are very vulnerable defensively (on average 2.91 goals conceded away and xG against 2.2), which creates an opportunity for Calvary. In the last 5 matches both teams average 0.2 points (Calvary conceded 8 goals, Buhimba 9), so form is weak, but superiority in possession (51% vs 40%), shot volume (16 vs 6.11) and xG (1.91 vs 0.96) leads to a marginal preference for the hosts.

I project BTTS - No because both teams display very low finishing: Calvary averages 0.8 goals per match and Buhimba United Saints 0.64. Buhimba fail to score in 64% of games and Calvary in 40%, with season BTTS rates of only 30% (home) and 27% (away). In the last 5 fixtures BTTS for both sides was just 20%, and recent 5-match xG are 0.85 for Calvary and 0.78 for Buhimba, indicating few clear chances created. Although Buhimba concede heavily this season (2.91 goals per match) and Calvary have a season xG_for of 1.12, poor shot conversion (7% for the visitors) and high share of clean-sheet/scoreless matches point toward scenarios where at least one team fails to score. For these reasons I assess BTTS probability at 30% for 'yes' and 70% for 'no' and recommend a bet on 'no'.

I estimate Calvary will score on average 1.66 goals (xG 1.12 vs opponent xG against 2.20) and Buhimba about 1.28 goals (xG 0.96 vs opponent xG against 1.59), totaling ~2.94 expected goals. From a Poisson distribution with sum 2.94 there is ~79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, 56% for Over 2.5 and 34% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Historically Over 1.5 occurred in 60% of Calvary’s matches and 64% of Buhimba’s matches, and both teams have low clean sheet probabilities (30% and 18%), which further supports a scoring scenario. Buhimba concedes on average 2.91 goals per match with xG against 2.20, and Calvary produces 3.2 shots on target with a 10% conversion, so the probability of at least two goals in the game is significant and justifies a play on Over 1.5.

Statistical analysis favors Calvary: their xG is 1.12 versus Buhimba’s 0.96, they average 8.4 shots per match compared to the visitors’ 6.11, and seasonally they score 0.8 goals and concede 1.2, while the visitors concede on average 2.91 goals per match. First-half data are particularly advantageous for the hosts — Buhimba conceded 22 goals by half-time, 11 of which occurred in the 31–45 minute window, and the visitors were trailing at the break in 90% of their matches, whereas the hosts were level at half-time in 50% of their games. The difference in form and points also speaks for Calvary: the hosts average 1.1 points per match versus 0.36 for the visitors and have a win rate of 30% compared to 9%. Consequently, the strongest scenario is the hosts leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assess this at roughly a 40% probability; an alternative is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1) at ~25%. Given the visitors’ average of 2.91 goals conceded and their low away win effectiveness (9%), scenarios ending in a Buhimba victory have a collectively low share.