Calvary vs KCCA: match statistics

Statistics clearly favor KCCA: the visitors sit 2nd with a record of 16 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses and 36 goals scored, while Calvary are 16th with only 1 win, 7 draws and 9 goals. Form confirms KCCA's superiority — in the last 5 matches the visitors have 4 wins and 1 loss, averaging 2.4 points per game, whereas Calvary have just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 and average 1.0 point. Quality-of-chances analysis shows Calvary at home average 16 shots (4 on target) and a home xG of 1.91, but they score only 0.45 goals on average and fail to score in 73% of home matches, indicating severe inefficiency. KCCA away average 9.92 shots (3.33 on target), have a conversion rate of about 11% and score 1.08 goals per match, and they conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, giving them an edge in offensive efficiency and defensive stability. Considering the goal differential (36 vs 9), finishing efficiency and recent form, I predict an away win.

I favour the 'no' scenario (BTTS - No) with a 65% probability because short-term trends strongly suppress both-teams-to-score occurrences: in the last 5 matches both Calvary and KCCA have 0% BTTS. Each side records 42% of matches with a clean sheet, while the league BTTS rate is only 39%, increasing the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score. Calvary shows strong attacking figures (1.92 goals, xG 1.85 and 5.58 shots on target per game) and KCCA concedes 0.83 goals season-to-date, so Calvary has a real chance to score. However, KCCA averages only 1.08 goals with xG 1.47 this season, and Calvary concedes 0.67 on average while scoring just 2 goals in their last 5 matches with an average xG of 0.44, which weakens both teams’ goal-creating confidence. Overall, season-long BTTS rates of 50% for Calvary and 33% for KCCA are outweighed by 0% BTTS in the last 5 games and the high share of clean sheets (42%), so the stronger signal is 'no'.

Calvary average 1.92 goals at home with xG 1.85 per match, while KCCA average 1.08 goals away with xG 1.47. After averaging attack and defense (home xG 1.85 vs. away xG conceded 1.18 and away xG 1.47 vs. home xG conceded 1.14) the model projects 1.45 goals for Calvary and 1.09 for KCCA, total 2.54. A model total of 2.54 goals implies approximately a 72% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~47% for Over 2.5 and ~25% for Over 3.5, partially supported by seasonal indicators: Calvary have 67% of home matches Over 1.5 and 67% Over 2.5, while KCCA have 58% Over 1.5 and 33% Over 2.5 away. Additionally, Calvary average 5.58 shots on target per match versus KCCA’s 3.33, and KCCA have scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 per match), increasing scoring risk from the visitors. Consequently I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest option given the model total of 2.54 and the relatively high seasonal probability of Over 1.5 goals.

Calvary are clear favorites to hold a lead at the break: the hosts led at half-time in 9 matches (75%), scoring an average of 1.33 goals by half-time versus 0.25 for KCCA and conceding an average of 0.25 goals by half-time compared to 0.42 for the visitors. The hosts’ advantage persists over the full match — Calvary’s season average is 1.92 goals versus 1.08 for KCCA, and their win rate is 83% versus 50%, which together with HTPPG 2.42 vs 1.00 increases the hosts’ chances of a full-time victory. Chance quality also favors Calvary: xG for the hosts is 1.85 vs 1.47 for KCCA, with an average of 14.08 shots and 5.58 on target compared to 9.92 and 3.33 for the visitors. Nevertheless, KCCA are stronger in second halves (on average 1.25 goals after the break and 83% of matches with a goal in the second half) and have good recent form (80% wins in the last five), which gives them a realistic, though smaller, chance of a turnaround. As a result I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (60%), with smaller chances of 12% for 1/X and 9% for X/1 as the most plausible alternatives.